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PaperclipPerfector  10mo ago (text post)   38353 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 8, 2024

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What's Biden's survival path? Manifold's currently putting him at 41% chance, but I'm not seeing a likely way for that to happen.

Things look to me like:

  • Democrats express displeasure.

  • Biden refuses to drop out.

  • Democrats adjust convention rules to free up delegates.

  • Delegates reject Biden.

Are people thinking that Democrats won't allow the convention to nominate someone other than Biden? Or that delegates will vote for Biden?

Neither of those seem especially likely to me, especially when Kamala's an easy default option to unify around, even if her reputation is that she's unpopular. So I guess I'm not seeing where it's coming from. Are there convention rules that are problematic? I'm wondering whether them meeting early due to the Ohio deadline being earlier is a factor, but Ohio moved it back, so they can just cancel their early meeting, right?

But, this is not the best development for the Trump campaign.

The Biden nomination relies merely on Democratic indecision and cowardice which... Seems like a generally good bet. For the most part good strategy is to turtle, run out the round, and be saved by the bell. For the most part I agree that it might be too late to win the presidency, and every week that passes it's later.

In particular Biden just needs Democrats to collectively hesitate out of a sense of MAD, which can be achieved by empasizing that some voters would only vote for Joe. There apparently exist people like that. I can't comprehend it. But showing enough of them makes Biden unremovable. If removing him costs 5% of the vote, it's pointless to try.

Biden controls the war chest, and second, forcing him out is not the same as him stepping down for the good of the country. One is Brutus, the other heroic. Superdelegate2.0 won’t go over better. Besides, you can’t defect until you can coordinate universal defection or you get punished.

One is Brutus, the other heroic.

Brutus was a hero, to be fair.

Brutus was a vacillator who sided with the killer of his father to throw the Republic into the hands of Augustus. Hardly heroic, in my book.

I don't think Brutus intended for things to just wind up in Augustus' hands. The point is that he tried to do something to save the Republic, even if he ultimately failed. I call that pretty heroic.

Hitler tried to do something to save Germany. His ideas were bad and his implementation was worse. No one Almost no one would call that heroic. Likewise Brutus.

Bruh. In no way is Brutus comparable to Hitler.

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