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Notes -
What's Biden's survival path? Manifold's currently putting him at 41% chance, but I'm not seeing a likely way for that to happen.
Things look to me like:
Democrats express displeasure.
Biden refuses to drop out.
Democrats adjust convention rules to free up delegates.
Delegates reject Biden.
Are people thinking that Democrats won't allow the convention to nominate someone other than Biden? Or that delegates will vote for Biden?
Neither of those seem especially likely to me, especially when Kamala's an easy default option to unify around, even if her reputation is that she's unpopular. So I guess I'm not seeing where it's coming from. Are there convention rules that are problematic? I'm wondering whether them meeting early due to the Ohio deadline being earlier is a factor, but Ohio moved it back, so they can just cancel their early meeting, right?
But, this is not the best development for the Trump campaign.
I don't understand how the US state machinery can withstand the humiliation of Biden constantly saying dumb stuff. It was pretty bad when Bush went
Biden's just done the same thing: https://x.com/FunNormalGuy/status/1811518090355614120
The trained seals clap anyway because why not? About 2 seconds later Biden realizes and tries to undo it, 'no he's gonna beat President Putin, its President Zelensky!' And the man he's just humiliated is standing right there, ready to come on stage! Nobody is going to be thinking about what Zelensky has to say.
This silliness is actually dangerous, it renders the US unpredictable and volatile. When Biden says stuff like 'we're gonna defend Taiwan' and the White House clarifies it as 'no the one China policy hasn't changed and we've signed no treaty' what does that mean? Who is to be believed? Is it a strategy of strategic ambiguity or is it strategic schizophrenia? Who is making decisions and drawing up policy? How can you negotiate with a leaderless country?
Next he's going to praise America's best buddy in the Middle East, the Shah of Iran!
The crown prince of Iran is a Republican, so I don’t expect Biden will praise him. But you never know these days.
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