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We're in a black swan sprint. Attempted assassination of the previous President, the incumbent President announcing (or "announcing") he's not running for a second term and now a growing din that he's dead or all but. My grandmother experienced a cluster of transient ischemic attacks. She was sharp, in her mid-80s and about to make a long drive to Texas for her annual checkup, to the next day being unable to ever drive again and maybe ever think again. Her body lived a few more years, it's a bad way to go.
I started with no conclusion about the attempt on Trump's life but for transparency's sake I am the type to assume it was a hit. I think neutrally reported evidence now shows it was a hit.
Cheatle testified the USSS was alerted between 2 and 5 times to Crooks
CNN on forensic analysis showing reports from 3 weapons; and I don't know this guy, I'm not endorsing any of his analysis or quoting it here, but at around 18:40 is a clip where 3 distinct reports can be heard.
CBS news on the USSS saying their counter-snipers fired a single shot.
I can't find anything from the other law enforcement at the event saying one or more of their guys discharged their firearms, I think we'd know by now if one of the cops took shots.
Cheatle declined to answer if Crooks acted alone.
Cheatle testified the USSS has no recordings of radio comms from the event. Recording everything could be a policy that only applies to the details protecting the sitting President, but given everything else we know I take the adverse inference.
I think the adverse inference is justified because of the chasmic hole of "third gun." A third person was firing a weapon at that event, we don't know who they are (or were), we don't know where they were when they took those shots, and most importantly, we don't know why we don't know. If they were killed in whatever building, that's a corpse that got disappeared in the middle of a crime scene where somebody tried to kill a former President. If they got away, they got away. That doesn't happen without help. Conclusively: at least one person at that rally charged with protecting Trump tried or helped someone try to kill him. The necessary next question is how high does it go?
Except, that's not really true, is it?
I think this would be fair if I were citing arguments and analysis of the biased. Like if I were quoting the guy from the second link in #2, where he argues the origin and target of the shots, that'd be fair. Or if I were quoting the research being done by the Heritage Foundation. I'm not, I give them no current stock. Everything above other than the link in #2 is either an unbiased (or counter-biased) reporter, or where it's a biased reporter I only linked it because it contains Cheatle's testimony or raw footage/audio. The guy speculating on USSS protocol is biased, but he's also providing a counterargument: it could be protocol they don't keep recordings, or reasonably-selectively keep recordings, and the rally didn't qualify for entirely justifiable reasons.
My willingness to relatively quickly take the adverse inference is probably a result of my disposition, but I can say on 7/13 I wasn't thinking it was a hit, and by my own logs I wasn't looking hard at it until 7/16. I didn't write on some of the questions raised until 7/18, and even on 7/19 I would say I was only on the verge. The audio analysis is what pushed me over and that's because there's no argument against it. Three weapons were fired, Crooks fired some of the shots, the USSS counter-sniper fired the last shot, and there is a burst that is unaccounted for. Short of federal law enforcement and the domestic intelligence apparatus being in the midst of a clandestine nationwide manhunt for the second shooter and they don't want to give anything away, there is no other good explanation. But hell, it could be that, and if it is and they catch the guy, great.
There were two counter sniper teams. Isn’t it possible the burst came from the other team, the one off on Trump’s left, but they missed because they were trying to respond in a hurry? But the USSS wanted to look good and so has emphasized the “one shot one kill” narrative. At least that’s what we know initially assumed to be the case, and it would also be consistent with 3 weapons.
Also, this special analysis from today indicates that the his specific spot on the roof was probably covered by trees from the second team, and also discusses theorized positions of two law enforcement counter sniper teams who also didn’t have a view.
The sniper teams were using bolt action .300 WinMag rifles (clearly visible in the video). There's no way they were doing any kind of 4-5 round burst with those. Indeed it very much looks like the team you can see in the clear video gets zero shots off and is scrambling to get a sightline on the source of the incoming fire.
The non-conspiracy answer is that somebody other than either of these sniper teams tried some suppressing fire with an AR-15 or similar -- but I'm not sure who would have been in a position to do this given the shooter's elevated position.
This would be my guess. They didn't have to have a clean shot on him to attempt suppressing fire -- when he started firing the second time, they might have just started firing in his direction. Probably an LEO who is being told to keep quiet, or we'd have heard about it by now.
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