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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 3, 2022

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What is the appropriate level for diplomatic discussion on twitter?

Recently Elon Musk has been heavily criticised for an admittedly naïve proposal for a negotiated peace in the Russian-Ukrainian war. His proposal:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1576969255031296000

Now this isn't how politics actually works, twitter polls are not actually binding instruments of diplomacy. Nor is a UN administered vote terribly helpful given how it'd just turn into a vote-rigging contest between the pro and anti-Russian forces within the UN and the Ukrainian state obviously wouldn't let the territories leave given the amount of blood that's been shed. They've threatened 15 year jail sentences for those who did vote in the most recent Russian referenda. It's also very hard to see why the Ukrainian govt would bind itself to allowing a Russian Crimea water since they dammed it off even before this war.

You can see from the replies that the objections aren't really on the object level, they're more on the 'go fuck yourself', 'educate yourself', 'you're using Putin talking points', 'Crimea is Ukraine'. All of this is essentially the official line of the Ukrainian state, as summarized by their ambassador to Germany: "Fuck off is my very diplomatic reply"

This seems rather ungrateful to me, as well as undiplomatic. As Elon reasonably argues, he has made a significant effort to assist the Ukrainian armed forces with communications via his satellites, paid from out of his own pocket:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1577081450263769089

The fundamental power balance in this war is that Russia could obliterate the entirety of Ukraine in under an hour and still have plenty of nukes left to raze Europe and North America if they intervene. There are some people on this site who think that Russian nuclear forces probably don't work and so we can safely discount Russia's 2000 tactical nuclear weapons and 4000 strategic weapons. How they've come to that conclusion is beyond me, given that the technologies involved are fairly simple and old. The same people have been critiquing Russia for fighting a war with 1970s level technology - miniaturized thermonuclear weapons are 1970s technology! Yes, the tritium has a low half-life and needs to be replaced often. Yes, Russia doesn't have the best maintenance standards. But isn't it reasonable for them to prioritize their nuclear forces in terms of maintenance and development? Are we seriously prepared to risk tens if not hundreds of millions of our citizens dying in a full nuclear exchange if we are wrong about their nuclear preparedness? Their conventional tactical ballistic missiles work fine - doesn't it follow that their nuclear missiles work. This is the logic Musk is getting at. The penalty for emboldening dictators is not worse than the penalty for encouraging nuclear war, let alone losing a nuclear war by joining it.

I think this kind of hysterical diplomacy is dangerous and stupid, even from a Ukrainian-focused perspective. Why would you speak so rudely to a notoriously thin-skinned individual (remember when he called that diver 'pedo-guy') who has volunteered their services for your defence? One imagines Musk is seething with rage at his critics. The impression I get from Ukrainian media is that they are bent on getting back every scrap of territory and reparations to boot, won't suffer for anything less. This is the approach that is most likely to end with them getting nuked into submission.

Also, twitter should be for fun, not serious diplomacy.

The fundamental problem is Russia has never offered Ukraine an acceptable peace deal with security guarantees they will not reinvade at a later date. I wouldn’t have a problem with Luhansk, Donestk and Crimea going to the Russians with necessary security guarantees that Russia can’t try to conquoer the rest of Ukraine later. That offer has not been made.

More broadly as others have mentioned peace in Ukraine has to fit inside broader global security guarantees. US security umbrella globally needs to be binding. If the US gives into nuclear blackmail today then tomorrow we have 5x the number of nuclear armed countries. Taiwan, S Korea, Japan within 2 years. Saudis not long after. If the Saudis are nuclear then Iran becomes nuclear. Potentially Finland and perhaps some of the Baltic states jointly develop. Poland definitely goes nuclear.

Sometimes you have to bite the bullet and play the nuclear threat game because the alternative risks is higher.

You would basically be looking at any country feeling pressure from China/Russia considering their nuclear options if they no longer trust American guarantees.

Assuming there was anyone in the State Department who wanted it to happen, could the Americans prompt Russia, off the record, to offer such a guarantee to the Ukrainians and split up Ukraine, without appearing to have given in to nuclear blackmail?