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Culture War Roundup for the week of August 12, 2024

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What do our more military-minded posters make of the current Kursk incursion of Ukrainian forces into Russia?

The battle lines inside Ukraine proper have become essentially immobile, so it seems Ukraine has at least found a softer place in which to strike. But it's not clear to me what the strategic objective of this operation is. Is it essentially a feint to draw Russian troops away from defending conquered Ukrainian territory? Is the plan to claim Russian land to negotiate land swaps with when the time comes for peace talks? I don't see how it directly gets the Ukrainians any closer to their goal of evicting the Russians from Ukraine.

Ukraine could be aping the strategy of Israel here. There's a growing consensus that Israel thinks it has "escalation dominance" in its proxy war against Iran. They can embarrass Iran and Iran will just have to take it. If Iran strikes back too harshly, the U.S. will stomp them.

Therefore, Israel, bleeding a death by a thousand cuts, must take an offensive posture to draw the U.S. into the war. It hopes to provoke Iran into attacking, thereby getting more military support or at least money. It might work. Iran is apparently planning a significant reprisal for the assassination of the Hamas leader on their soil. And the U.S. is trying to talk them down, promising support to Israel if they do attack too harshly.

This logic seems to hold for Ukraine even more. They are losing a war of attrition and may be facing a manpower collapse in the near future. As time goes on, the West tires of this war. The Ukrainian flags quietly disappear from the Twitter bios. But if Ukraine can provoke a Russian atrocity, it will get more Western support, more arms, more dollars, and maybe even NATO troops. This is their best bet to "win" the war.

I don't consider Israel's assassination of the leader of Hamas on Iranian soil a big escalation. It seems like just the normal thing to do with terrorist leaders.

Edit: also, I think the US Government might continue to supply Ukraine indefinitely, as long as the voting public doesn't actively oppose it. It's not like we live in a direct democracy where every voter has to actively re-up on the decision to arm Ukraine once per year, it's more delegated/technocratic/deep-statey than that. Whatever words you want to use to describe it.

As much as I don't trust the unelected bureaucracy about some things, this way of making the decision seems fine to me.

I don't consider Israel's assassination of the leader of Hamas on Iranian soil a big escalation. It seems like just the normal thing to do with terrorist leaders.

Would you consider a Chinese assassination of an individual they believed to be a Tibetan separatist leader living in the USA to be a hostile act? Is your belief that international borders do not matter, or that only Iran's borders do not matter?

Since Iran could not protect its borders, yes Iranian borders do not matter.

When China starts openly sabotaging American military infrastructure and assassinating people on American soil with impunity, it would be clear that US superpower days are over and it is now just ordinary third world shithole country.