This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
This weekend, I witnessed the Vibe Shift firsthand.
When we met for lunch, my mother’s first topic was the DNC. Who spoke and how great they sounded. How excited she was about the whole thing. She corrected me on “Comma-lah’s” name, which I’d apparently been mispronouncing, and used that as a springboard to discuss Kamala t-shirts. She didn’t mention that watching the DNC had been inspiring enough to get her volunteering to write postcards and stuff mailers. It was clear that she was all-in on the program without ever discussing policy—or even Donald Trump.
Dad chimed in a couple times to note that the overall messaging was much more positive, except for Bernie Sanders, who sounded unchanged from the last ten years. He appreciated this. I’d say he represents a section of the populace with immense distaste for Trump, but a comparable disdain for politicians who spend too much time talking about the man.
I had been under no illusions that Mom would vote anything but Democrat. Dad, not so sure; I’d have given good odds of a protest vote if the Libertarian candidate wasn’t such a non-entity. More likely that he abstained. But the last couple weeks appear to have left him much more comfortable voting D. The same has to be true for Mom, too, as I never saw this level of enthusiasm for anything Biden did or said.
That’s the Vibe Shift: apathy to enthusiasm.
It doesn’t take a coordinated blitz of friendly op-eds, since my parents were getting this straight from the TV. It doesn’t take an iron grip on that TV presentation; the DNC herds their cats, but they can’t convince Bill Clinton to get off stage. And it doesn’t even take a winning policy slate. The Democrat base, the casual never-Trumpers, maybe even the grillpillers? They’re just glad to have a candidate under the retirement age.
I'm obviously not in the position to confirm or deny any vibe shift happening half a world away, but my ongoing frustration with the whole Kamala thing is that there's always at least one degree of separation between the enthusiasm and the person reporting it's existence. I'd love to hear the thoughts of an earnest supporter, starting with what they're hoping to get from her that they weren't getting for the past 4 years.
As someone now leaning Kamala (despite having some nasty things to say about her earlier), she isn't embarrassing in the same way Biden was (or Trump, to a lesser extent, is). When she does something goofy, it's more endearing than terrifying.
I'm unhappy with both candidates' "policy platforms," but in the end neither will be enacted to a meaningful extent. Kamala's also more allied with my geography and employers, so I might receive more benefits from federal largesse.
Does that count as enthusiasm? Hah. My vote doesn't matter anyway.
Are you sure about that? The chance of a trifecta, provided a Harris victory takes place, is about 50%, per the betting markets, I believe. That's high! They might not be able to get some of the price controls stuff through, but if they get 50%+1 in each house, they absolutely will enact "court reforms" (term limits, which are really court packing; the No Kings Act, which is really a way to force the judiciary to stop taking positions one dislikes, constitution be damned) that have popular sounding names and high esteem among democrats (so they'll pass), but have the long-run effect of destroying the independence of the federal judiciary and our system of government. Also, no way they crack down on the border, which will over time, as those here illegally get citizenship, push the country farther left, and get you some more of those policies you don't like.
I don’t think democrats need 50%+1 to pass court reforms. Historical dem majorities have relied on blue doggers who are scared of such things.
They likely need 60% in the house, or close to it, and a good 55 or so senators, at least.
I've yet to see anyone commit that they won't. It's worth noting that term limits is a popular and moderate-sounding proposal, and the no kings act has the advantage of being against an unpopular, and extreme-sounding SCOTUS decision.
In the Senate, Manchin and Sinema were the only ones who cared about the filibuster. They'll be gone.
The list of D-affiliated senators who did not cosponsor the No Kings Act are: Senator Sinema, Senator Bennett, Senator Murphy, Senator Ossoff, Senator Tester, Senator Cortez Masto, Senator Rosen, Senator Hassan, Senator Menendez, Senator Brown, Senator Fetterman, Senator Warner, Senator Kaine, Senator Cantwell, and Senator Manchin.
The most likely set of seat changes, should the democrats win the senate, are Sinema->Gallego, Cardin->Alsobrooks, Stabenow->Slotkin, Manchin->Justice, Butler->Schiff, Carper->Rochester, Menendez->Kim.
That means they would still need to convince all of: Bennett, Murphy, Ossoff, Tester, Cortez Masto, Rosen, Hassan, Brown, Fetterman, Warner, Kaine, Cantwell, Gallego, Alsobrooks, Slotkin, Schiff, Rochester, and Kim. 18 Senators. Schiff's literally running on court packing. Alsobrooks spoke in favor of the Biden "reforms." Kim and Rochester are members of the house progressive caucus, as was Gallego before he had to pretend to be moderate, so moderation should not be our expectation. Slotkin's said she'd be open to term limits. So that's all the new members.
If anyone votes it down, I think it would be one of the current members. These are not as strong, as evidence, but Cantwell, Rosen, and Cortez Masto all cosponsored a bill to propose a constitutional amendment saying that Presidents have no immunity for actions, and generally applicable laws should be ordinarily read as applying to Presidents. Most of the rest supported ethics code things, but I don't really think that's weighty evidence.
Senator Whitehouse recently said that the "reforms" would in all likelihood be bundled in a package containing everything else they really want (e.g. making abortion legal everywhere), so that they only have to bypass a filibuster once. He says that would have "spectacular tailwinds," and that they'd be "virtually certain." It's possible that he's lying or wrong, but I'd expect he'd understand the environment better than I would.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link