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The political class isn't baffled. Maybe journalists are baffled because they're high on their own supply, but this isn't a case where the numbers say one thing but the feeling on the ground is different. The numbers are in fact mediocre. Unemployment is increasing. Job growth numbers were recently revised downward big-time -- and this was pretty much expected. Inflation was obviously terrible over the past few years and is still above that 2% benchmark. Yes, various flacks have been pushing the idea that the economy is doing just fine, but they're mostly not honestly wrong; they're lying. For the Democrats, this is their best strategy because they're stuck with responsibility for the economy.
So, as usual I'm somewhat limited in what I can back up with my own to eyes from where I sit, but what do you make of gimmicks like this?
Well, I'll just say that if people see their bills go 3x you're going to have a hard time convincing them inflation is fine even if by some statistical vodoo you can get the numbers to show 3%.
Since I'm not American my only two options are to go with the official numbers or give some credence to other people's subjective reports. At the end of the day this is a purely intellectual exercise for me.
I think you're making a mistake by saying this is political. Haven't surveys been showing pretty handy majorities concerned about inflation?
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/SENTIMENT-POLITICS/gkvlgqjzxpb/
Consumer sentiment being politically motivated is, itself, at this point a well measured statistic. ((Sorry for the awful graph but I think you can figure it out))
Maybe I'm mentally Ill, but that graph looks perfectly readable to me.
Anyway you'll notice that even in these polarized times, and with a metric as nebulous as "sentiment" you still get something coherent. The election times flips notwithstanding, the for each party, and the independents, are moving in the same direction at the same time. You don't get Democrats saying everything is getting better over the years as Republicans are saying everything is getting worse, nor do you get each side maxing out their respective values.
Inflation is no different. Yes, fewer Democrats think it's a problem than Republicans, but that still leaves us with 52% Democrats thinking it's a "very big" problem. Maybe they got psy-opped by TikTok, maybe 3% is already a very big problem for a lot of people... Or maybe, just maybe, the 3% number is not representative of the increases hitting people each month.
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