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Notes -
New week, so new cultural war post- this time for Germany. As you may have seen in your morning news feeds, the German far right wins first major election since WW2 on last Sunday.
Or rather, the German AfD won a plurality of votes in the German state of Thuringia, came very close to doing so in Saxony, and did very well in the formerly communist East Germany. While they did not win a majority in any state, this wouldn't be expected in a more parliamentary-style system either, and by coming up to nearly 1/3rd of the votes it represents the further normalization of the German- and by extension European- far right. While I'll be the first to say I find the labeling of the European right as 'far right' more indicative of European peculiarities and attempts to stigmatize political opponents than objective, it certainly is an increase in anti-Establishment sentiment expressed by parties with views counter to the European political elite consensus. Notably, and in a change from 2019 elections, the 2024 election also saw the rise of the far(ther)-left BSW party, whose rise took votes from established-left parties. While BSW is of the 'refuse to cooperate with AfD' direction, they are also notable for stated opposition to supporting Ukraine with more military aid, though how hard they hold that view / what they might trade it away for in coalition-negotiation remains to be seen.
Politically, this complicates the coalition-formation capacity of the remaining German parties, which have seen efforts at maintaining a non-cooperation cordon of 'any coalition but one with AfD' crack over time. It also raises the typical post-election question of 'what topic of discontent matters most'- as there are your typical breadbasket issues of economics and cost of living, and especially immigration. AfD/BSW appear to be where the anti-Ukraine support politics go as well, though how central that is to the party voters will be subject to the normal democratic post-election shift analysis, which everyone will try to boost their favored topic and diminish others. These are all the more relevant as this leads to the German federal elections next year, which matters due to the fragility of the current government coalition, whose coalition has kept the AfD out of what would be a normal government involvement for cycles now.
Culture implications here are many, from the continued normalization of the European right, to the rise of East Germany as a political spoiler in politics that have been dominated by the western-German political center since unification, to the role of immigration as a 'we're willing to ignore the party stigma for the sake of this issue' issue.
There are also the geopolitical implications, such as how the German election results may shape the Ukraine War. The early take might be that the election foreshadows the decreased chance of future German military aid to Ukraine, but that in turn could drive the current government to 'lock in' support mechanisms in a way a government with less flexibility couldn't pass/reverse, as well as the incentives this public potential struggle could have on actors in peace negotiations to consider whether they are more likely to get a better position after the next Federal election (and thus less reason to make/signal concessions before then).
Overall, interesting if not surprising times.
The AfD is at the very least flirting with the far right, if not being it itself. But overall the core issue is that the grand coalition under the Merkel CDU was so "pure centrist" that there effectively is a vacuum for a proper, believable moderate right. Remember: The start of the current immigration problems in the popular conception was Merkel's 2015 complete surrender to immigration on the basis that any limitation, any requirements that could possibly, theoretically keep a legitimate asylum seeker from entering the country is not morally justifiable. Which in practice meant that we actively filtered our immigrants based on honesty - that is, any immigrant stupid enough to be honest risked to have to go back, while brazen lying was consistently rewarded except if it could be proven beyond doubt (which is almost impossible in practice). The same goes now for deportations; Almost only proven criminals are affected with an order, and the majority of orders still goes unprocessed for a variety of reasons.
Scrolling forward to today, in polls around 40% of germans state that they think the CDU/CSU does not want to limit immigration at all. And this is the allegedly farthest right party considered legitimate by the establishment! No matter your own political position, it should be obvious that any functioning democracy WILL generate a new right given due time. Well, now we have that, and it is the AfD and to some degree the BSW (which is far-left on economic issues, but right-leaning on several social issues by public conception). Noting that both are somewhat kooky, incompetent and include extremists is true, but also increasingly beyond the point - if I think that, say, immigration is the most serious issue, I will vote for someone who at least attempts to limit it. Voting for someone who competently and sanely works against my interests and for his own would be stupid, after all.
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