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Culture War Roundup for the week of September 2, 2024

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If you were going to increase the birth rate how would you do it?

There's lots of suggestions, most of them bad. For example, Scandinavian countries have been touted as "doing it right" by offering generous perks to families such as paid family leave. But these efforts, despite outrageous costs, have done little or nothing to stem the falling birth rate. Sweden's fertility rate is a dismal 1.66 as of 2020, and if trends hold, the rate among ethnic Swedes is far lower.

I think that, like everything, deciding to marry and have a family comes down to status.

Mongolia is a rare country that has managed to increase its fertility rate over the last 20 years, from about 2.1 children per women in 2004, to about 2.7 today. This feat is more impressive considering the declines experienced worldwide during the same period. It's doubly impressive considering the fertility rate in neighboring Inner Mongolia (China) is just 1.06!

What is Mongolia doing right? Apparently, they are raising the status of mothers by giving them special recognition and status.

https://x.com/MoreBirths/status/1827418468813017441

In Georgia (the country), something similar happened when an Orthodox patriarch started giving special attention to mothers with 3 children:

https://x.com/JohannKurtz/status/1827070216716874191

Now, raising the status of mothers is more easily said than done. But I think it's possible, especially in countries with a high degree of social cohesion like in East Asia. In Europe, a figure like the King of Netherlands could personally meet and reward mothers. In the United States, of course, this sort of thing would be fraught as any suggestion coming from the right might backfire due to signalling. Witness the grim specter of the vasectomy and abortion trucks at the DNC. But the first step to fixing a problem is to adequately diagnose the cause. To me, the status explanation is more compelling (and fixable) than any other suggestion I've seen.

I stopped worrying about potential dysgenic effects of boosting fertility among lower classes: if elite overproduction is a thing we should be worried about, low PMC fertility is a feature, not a bug.

One thing that's required is a massive propaganda campaign:

  • all fictional families shown in the media must have two or more children or regret not having them
    • their living conditions shouldn't be overinflated: children sharing bedrooms with each other or even with their parents must be portrayed as normal
  • getting married after high school and having children must always be shown in a positive light, at least 50% of the movies/series produced by every studio must feature such a family
  • dating app culture must always be shown in a negative light
    • to allay fears of missing out on variety and spice, married couples with children practicing swinging or BDSM must be shown in a neutral or positive light
  • empty-nesters refusing to help their children with acquiring housing (either staying in a large empty home or selling it and buying an RV, a boat or a fancy retirement home) must always be shown in a negative light
    • conversely, multi-generational homes or grandparents downsizing their home to help their children with their mortgage must always be portrayed in a positive light

I say propaganda, but this doesn't have to be outright censorship, measures like the National Minimum Drinking Age Act can be used to goad companies into compliance.

The propaganda campaign must be supplemented with additional economic measures:

  • additional income taxes on:
    • single people aged 21 or older ("if you're old enough to drink, you're old enough to settle down")
    • DINKs aged 26 or older
    • DISKs aged 31 or older
  • additional property taxes on residences greater than 350 sqft per person and vehicles designed for recreation owned by people 31 or older with no dependents

I have to wonder at the Venn diagram between 1) thinking TFR is a problem and 2) belief in the efficacy of diverse/inclusive/woke media. Not valence, efficacy. There can’t be many who think replacing the Black hobbits with pregnant ones would have made Rings of Power tolerable.

More generally, the policies you describe form a continuum. At the close end, we certainly could bully companies into producing some Very Special Episodes about resisting the urge to buy a boat. They’ll run directly into the cultural antibodies developed by every other time the government has tried something similar.

At the far end, Hollywood and friends could in theory adopt this wholesale, saturating the media environment. Make vitalism birtherism natalism as universal as girl power. No, as ubiquitous as punching Nazis. Maybe that would have a chance of connecting with audiences. Except to reach that point, you already have to have won. Not just over the culture producers, but the consumers who pay for tickets and subscriptions. Such a media blitz isn’t the cause; it’s the effect.

What is practical won’t be effective, and what might be effective is wildly impractical.

1) thinking TFR is a problem and 2) belief in the efficacy of diverse/inclusive/woke media. Not valence, efficacy.

Efficacy for what? They were always justified with trying to increase tolerance / reduce ism, but they seem almost custom engineered to do the opposite, so how do we measure efficacy?

Then there's also the fact that bad propaganda also exists. Eastern commies were quite bad at it, for example, so they had to make up for the shortfall of hearts and minds with more conventional methods.