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It's been a bit since we've check in the election. How are things going?
You might not know it, but Donald Trump's chances have had a bit of a resurgence lately. Nate Silver's model has him at a 61% chance to win the election. Polymarket has him at 51%.
I think the error bars are pretty wide here. A lot of things are going to come into play. Small decisions in swing states (such as absentee ballot policies) could decide the election. Another factor is how much the "Shy Tory" effect still matters. Exactly who are the people that answer for the phone for pollsters anyway?
The economy appears to be crashing at exactly the wrong time for Kamala. Prices have been increasing faster than wages, and the customer is "tapped out". The stock prices of many consumer-facing companies like DollarTree, Starbucks, Lululemon, and Nike have cratered along with sales projections.
All of this might force Kamala Harris to actually say or do something. For those following along she has made only one unscripted appearance since becoming the heir-apparent. It was an 18 minute interview (cut from 41 minutes) with a friendly interviewer and her running mate present as a chaperone. For comparison, here is the same interviewer with J.D. Vance.
But maybe staying hidden is still a good policy. The one time the Harris campaign did propose something, it was an appalling series of tax increases including an unrealized capital gains tax. If the polls stay close, Harris will probably stay hidden.
On the other hand, the Trump campaign seems to be very different than previous ones. He's not gotten nearly as much media coverage, either because he's not saying outrageous things anymore, or everyone is bored with it. He's done some decent long-form interviews with podcasts such as Lex Friedman, Theo Von, and All-in. But these are just reaching his core audience of bros. Meanwhile, and uncharacteristic for him, he's spent a lot of time playing defense, having to counter the lie that he will ban abortion nationwide. Perhaps it is ironic that a politician who built his political career on a vicious lie (birthergate) will ultimately be undone by one.
As for myself, I will be voting for Trump even though I think he's a bad person. I prefer a bad person to bad policies. And I think Harris represents everything I hate about the Democratic party: racial grievances, suppression of speech, strident militarism abroad, and increased regulation and taxation. But in the end, I'm not sure how much this election will matter. Both candidates are so unpopular the backlash may outweigh the value of having the Presidency.
So... who are you voting for?
Polls in 2016 and 2020 had Trump ten points behind. He wasn't. Now polls have him tied or ahead. He's going to win.
Kamala is abad candidate. Her early stage momentum is over. There will probably be new twists and astroturfs and a few October Surprises. It's hard to predict exactly what's going to happen. But two months ago Democrats felt terrible about Kamala becoming the nominee, and I suspect that's the baseline to which they will return.
Also I don't think Trump is playing defense. The man does not stop. He was hit in the head with a bullet and then started a fight chant. He allied with RFK the day after Kamala's speech at the convention. To the extent the secret service will let him he's still giving packed rallies promising mass deportations. Meanwhile they're trying and failing to put this man in jail. Nothing has stopped him. Abortion is a speed-bump and if the media isn't talking about him it's because they're trying a new way to beat him. It won't work.
I'm voting Trump and I'm having fun.
I was wondering what he was doing while Kamala was getting feted by the press; it turns out he was courting Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr.. Successfully, though in both cases in large part because the Democrats snubbed them (ain't no rule in politics about not taking advantage of your opponents unforced errors!)
The problem is the media. I don't think anyone but Trumpists hears anything about Trump except when it's bad, like the whole beating up an Arlington employee thing.
They were snubbed for a reason. Trump getting their endorsement may get them part of the crank vote, but at the same time it labels them the party of cranks. If you look at the numbers, Biden won Pennsylvania in 2016 by winning over a lot of Democratic "legacy voters", mostly white working and lower class voters in rural areas, particularly in the western part of the state. Trump actually did even better among these voters in 2020, but he lost the state anyway, as his antics alienated suburbanites who typically voted Republican; Biden gained 80,000 votes in Allegheny and Montgomery counties alone, which is more or less the margin of victory. An endorsement from Tulsi Gabbard and RFK, Jr. does nothing to get you these voters, and, if anything it turns them off even more. Especially in light of the fact that a guy like RFK is well left of the Democrats on most matters, but is given a pass by Republicans because he hopped on their anti-vaccine bandwagon. Acting like this does anything to move the needle is acting similarly about Harris getting Dick Cheney's endorsement.
Outside of “not liked by the DNC” makes Tulsi a crank?
She's not a crank herself, but she has the reputation of one among normie suburbanites who only hear about her media heel turn. The people I know who supported her in 2020 were all the kind of lefties who expressed support for Ron Paul in 2008. Fair or not, that's the reputation she has, and I don't think her endorsement of Trump moves the needle very much, if at all, considering those same lefty supporters I was referring to tend to despise Trump.
My guess is she doesn’t have a big following amongst normie suburbanites one way or the other. But she has some Rogan cache. The endorsement doesn’t move a lot either way but helps create positive news / momentum / probably very much on the margin.
The RFK Jr one may matter. If he can get 60% of his block to vote for Trump that’s a 1% net boost. Question is whether it has negative effects but he may be a “crank” but at the same time he is associated with the left and is talking about historic left issues (eg anti war, pro free speech). It is a bit hard to reconcile that with an authoritarian Trump. So it shows that while Trump might be a bit weird, he is t the threat the Dems keep making him out to be.
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