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PaperclipPerfector  8mo ago (text post)   3172 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for September 8, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Do people have any thoughts, questions on forecasting stuff?

Some things I'd love to have some back and forths about:

  • How to model the chance that North Korea will detonate a nuclear bomb by end of year?
  • Chance that monkeypox will spread to the West? Distribution of expected deaths?
  • How to model the spread of conflict? How to model which states matter in the world?
  • What will happen with Bangladesh?
  • Some states are three families in a trenchcoat. What's up with that? Particularly in the case of Pakistan: it's a nuclear state, but it also just has a lot of difficulty projecting power into rural areas...

How to model the chance that North Korea will detonate a nuclear bomb by end of year?

On foreign soil 0. Making another test - close to 0. The world has forgotten they exist, they win nothing in grabbing attention.

Chance that monkeypox will spread to the West? Distribution of expected deaths?

Probably 100 to get at least some cases. Extremely low death count, probably concentrated into fisrt gen third world immigrants and immunocompromised people that lead risky lives. Everyone is vaccinated against smallpox in the west and it provides at least some protection.

How to model the spread of conflict? How to model which states matter in the world?

Magic 8ball is your best bet. The world is moving towards readjustment of the balance of power. It may go totally peacefully, absolute bloodbath or a series of local flare-ups that are contained. We are not exactly in 1914 - I don't think anyone want a real war, but things may get out of control.

What will happen with Bangladesh?

Probably nothing. Modi doesn't want short victorious war right now, so probably will ignore some harassment of Hindus there. The country doesn't seems to move towards civil war, so whomever is in power will probably try to keep things under control too.

Some states are three families in a trenchcoat. What's up with that? Particularly in the case of Pakistan: it's a nuclear state, but it also just has a lot of difficulty projecting power into rural areas...

Nuking a village is a waste of resources. As long as the area 5 km around centaurus mall is safe and under control they mostly don't care.

People are vaccinated against smallpox? I'm not.

Are people still being vaccinated for smallpox?

The smallpox vaccine is no longer available to the public. In 1972, routine smallpox vaccination in the United States ended.

In 1980, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox was eliminated. Because of this, the public doesn't need protection from the disease.

In my corner of europe yes.

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