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Discussion starter, but something I'm sincerely interested in and don't have strong opinions about: do modern Western states (e.g., the US, UK, Japan) have more or less state capacity than they did 20, 40, 60 years ago?
The concept of state capacity seemed to enter mainstream geopolitics wonkery about a decade or so ago, and I find it very useful. I'm sure most of you have heard of it, but in short it refers to the ability of the state to accomplish its policy goals through the use of military, industrial, infrastructural, economic, and informational resources. Each of these is important, but I'd flag that informational resources have a special role insofar as they directly feed into the efficiency by which other resources can be deployed for ends. For example, a piece of infrastructure like a new dam or a rail network may advance policy goals or it may be a waste of time and money, and informational resources will help the state predict which will be the case.
Two other key points to note. First, state capacity of course does not only refer to internal state capacity (i.e., resources proper to the state), but also the ability of the state to persuade or coerce domestic non-state actors such as corporations to co-operate with the state's goals. Most of the major players in WW2 - Britain, the United States, but also Germany and Japan - drew most of their state capacity from these more indirect mechanisms. Second, state capacity is hard to directly assess for the simple reason for it is a fact about potentiality rather than actuality: outside of wars or similar crises, there are good reasons both political and pragmatic for the state not to use the full force of its coercive power.
Recent or ongoing test cases for state capacity in the West include the COVID pandemic, ramping up of basic munitions production like 155mm artillery rounds (especially in Europe), and the new vogue for industrial policy in critical industries like ship-building in the US. My gut instinct is that right now, state capacity in the West is historically at a very low ebb, possibly lower than it has been for more than a century, and that this may be helpful for understanding the behaviour of governments. However, I don't have strong confidence in this assessment, and would love to hear what others think.
Absolutely not. At least in EU, state capacity is the lowest it's been since 1800.
Everything is wrapped in red tape. Nothing can be done fast. British were recently found to have wasted 500k pages on a planning application. Oh - that was debunked, it was only 63000 pages.. Been 9 years and 260 million pounds though. On a planning application.
Granted, EU is not this bad, that's Britain, but Europe is still pretty screwed and there's no indication the worst offenders - judges, courts and activists that basically decide what the law is are going to be removed. Most salient example is that removing undesirables is impossible in Germany and France, both countries have hundreds of thousands of people ordered to leave who are still there, committing crime and iirc also collecting welfare.
The power structure is currently occupied by declaring its few citizens willing to speak up for their own interests are dangerous far-right radicals. Yes, and as always trying to pass chat-control. New round of that idiocy in december.
Didn't it take something like a decade for the new Berlin airport to open after construction was completed?
What happened to Prussian efficiency?
Prussia hasn't existed since '47. Modern Germany has vastly different legal system and ethos. I guess it died with that.
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Feels like this is hefty hyperbole or you are taking a very narrow view of state capacity. States in the 1800s were much, much simpler; even 100 years ago, the populations of western European nations were considerably smaller than they are now. Universal healthcare, pensions and wider welfare were all post-WW2 inventions. Regardless of whether these are good things, they are absolutely colossal administrative tasks.
In transport, 19th century nations were able to quickly roll out train and canal infrastructure, but they were building over nothing and there was very little in terms of good road networks and air traffic was yet to exist. Modern nations are running much larger transport networks with far more participants.
In infrastructure, national electricity networks were pretty much not a thing until post-WW1. Now there are grids crisis crossing nations with far more complex load balancing and generation mixes.
Universal education was another thing that didn't exist until the late 19th/early 20th century, and even once it was introduced the years spent and scale of schools needed were much smaller than today.
I think the reason for the poor view of modern state capacity can be mapped to a divergence in capacity and complexity. If you took 1800 as a starting point, you would see capacity grow with basically constant, linear growth, whereas complexity is exponential. Thus, there was a long period where capacity had a healthy gap to complexity, but eventually complexity surpassed state capacity and the gap has only grown. So even though absolute capacity is higher than it ever was, it looks like governments are incapable as the scale of challenges has grown a lot faster.
Ok, lot of countries were quite primitive in 1800. But ability of states to get things done has taken a big nosedive since WW2 at the very least.
These are not good things. Pensions are basically declaring "we don't care about the future, we're going to bleed reproductive age people". They were invented in an age of rapid population growth. Now they're eating up state finances. The entire European social state model is hardly sustainable. Also pensions are.. much older..
Bismarck started with it in late 1880s, when the average person died 2 years before they could collect any, and there were cca 8x more young people than old.
I don't know where you live, but I don't expect to get any pension other than symbolic, and wouldn't expect it even if I were paying lot more taxes. Government debt is always increasing and economic growth is unlikely or impossible. AI is something to be regulated, not used, industry is a dirty word and energy is supposed to be expensive to "save the planet".
Look at the tempo of railway construction in 19th century. A feat like that is unimaginable today. Or how much of Europe was built then. Now much of Europe has unaffordable cost of housing because we can't or won't build.
Seeing as vast majority of university graduates use nothing whatsoever from their degrees, and it's purely a credential proving they can sit down & study, a lot of it is pure inefficiency. Same for universal high school.
The capacity of a state is orthogonal to the merit of its actions. A lot of people would say that wars and the ability to conduct military actions are a bad thing, but everyone understands that a strong military is indicative of state capacity. Likewise welfare and education. These are massive administrative challenges that modern governments handle fairly well.
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That's high state capacity, not low. The state has great capacity to stop anyone from building anything. Low state capacity would be if despite their best efforts they could not stop it.
"Is able to threaten to destroy a building with sufficient credibility that nobody invests a large sum of money building it" is a very, very low bar. "Is able to build the things it wants to build" is a much higher bar.
Nimbystan has higher state capacity than countries which can't prevent unauthorised construction at all, but lower state capacity than countries that can choose whether or not to build things and execute on either decision.
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