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Except that he has never actually cared about the election itself. He’s not interested in who wins. What he does is rather like a sports betting oddsmaker— he wants a model that reliably matches with the votes on Election Day so he can tell people who will win. He wants to tell you who wins the electoral Super Bowl, he doesn’t want to understand the game of football, or how the teams are winning.
The neo-reactionary crowd are not trying to tell you who wins the election. They’re trying to understand how the power dynamics work in American politics. They’re interested in the Laws of Power and War as they apply to the inner circle of American elites. Predicting an election wouldn’t impress them, though they’re often very interested in how power is gotten and how the cathedral shapes public opinion.
I suspect the public tends to use informal measures as they always have. If you’re going shopping and things cost more, that’s inflation and probably a sign of a bad economy. If you know of people getting laid off, again, that’s where people get their idea of a good or bad economy. The indicators that are used by silver and other prognosticators are very much lagging indicators because unlike prices at grocery stores or people in a given social circle getting laid off, they’re aggregate statistics and only released quarterly. To be blunt, by the time unemployment is officially up by enough for the economists to see it, it’s been long since noted by the public. I don’t think that’s distrust of official figures, just a reality of the system. He’s using numbers that come out quarterly. The public is using observation of things they see around them.
He's pretty clear on his blog that he wants Kamala to win, though.
It's true. He's been relentlessly pro-Kamala. But I think it's strange. He's trying to do that thing where he says "I'm a Democrat", but then he mostly criticizes Democrats.
If he was brutally honest with himself, he'd be a Trump voter. But that would entail losing his membership to the college of elites. Liberals would ceremonially remove his books from their shelves to avoid contagion. People would spit on the ground before they say his name. Etc...
So he has to stan for Kamala. If he wasn't a public figure, he'd probably be here in the Motte with the rest of us lowlifes.
As Upton Sinclair said "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his
salarysocial standing depends upon his not understanding it."I don't agree with that. I'm a Centrist, anti-woke Democrat, and as such I spend a lot of time criticizing Democrats. But switching parties is unthinkable to me both due to greater distaste of Trump and fundamentally irreconcilable policy differences. The reason I spend more time criticizing Democrats is because people who have some commonality with me are both more persuadable and more frustrating when not persuadable. Also they are my only viable option when trying to enact change.
This was my take for a long time.
But the best way to change Democrats is to support Republicans. Why is Kamala making anti-immigration and pro-gun noises now? It's because of pressure from the other party. Once the threat is defeated, she will run to the far left again.
The fact is that one party has captured nearly the entire elite. The Democrats are so much stronger than the Republicans, that we are at serious risk of becoming a one party state.
And I understand the aesthetic objection. I'm a blue tribe urbanite. I like ballet. To me, a lot of people in the Republican party are repulsive ogres. But I am okay putting policies ahead of my own purity. And even if I preferred Democratic policies, in the absence of a strong preference, I think it's generally more important to support the weaker party. If you want a sane Democratic party, vote Republican. And if the Republicans ever get too strong again (like in the Bush years) I'll say the opposite.
I also can't say I agree with that. It's election year, and I think both Kamala and Trump are making populist policy claims that seem completely contradictory to past claims. I have 0 reason to trust that they will stick.
I believe we need to do more for pollution control and managing climate change, and Republicans have and will oppose efforts to do that. Especially Conservative Supreme Court
I generally believe in protections for workers being fired for unfair reasons, and Republicans oppose that.
I support taxation used to provide poverty reduction programs, and Republicans oppose that.
I agree with Democrats on maybe 75% of things. Republicans would take active efforts to not just oppose new efforts but reverse direction on that 75%. That does not make sense to me as a strategy to oppose the 25% I disagree with.
I'd disagree with you about the policies. I think Republicans will do more for workers. And the climate change thing is a wash since the election won't change the amount of world CO2 emitted by more than 0.05%.
But it sounds like you think differently.
If you agree with Democrats about 75% of things, you're probably just a Democrat. That's okay. It's not a surprise that a person who shares 75% of their beliefs with Democrats would vote Kamala. I would if I were you.
I think Nate's beliefs are a little different though.
I think it's also determined by what you base your votes on.
My fellow lefties sometimes still think if they just got the right candidate in the rural parts of the country and really sell the non-college educated populace there on Medicare for all or whatever, they'd look past said candidate being pro-abortion and pro-LGBT or whatever, when that's just not happening, because those rural non-college educated folks legitimately care more about abortion, LGBT rights, immigration, et al than progressive economic policy, even if they'd say they're for union rights or single-payer health care in poll. Those people are conservatives, even if they have some left-leaning views, they just don't vote on those views.
By the same token, if you're a former Democrat PMC and all you deeply care about is transgenderism in schools, COVID rules, and various other Internet culture war issues on the conservative side, and you base you votes on that, and may be pro-choice or pro-union, but don't vote on that, you're just a conservative now. Or at the least, a partisan Republican.
I'm not saying that as an attack or a dunk, but rather I'm treating the college-educated anti-woke centrist with the same respect as a religious pro-life activist when it comes to their political views.
Coming from a conservative bubble- you're absolutely correct that democrat's views on abortion(and there are lots of people who have qualms with Texas abortion law but can't get past the DNC position that after-birth abortion like Tim Walz legalized is a woman's fundamental right) and LGBT stuff and guns and the like are big things to look past.
But, I think you're also ignoring something else- we have no reason to trust democrats when they say they'll enact universal single payer. No, they'll enact taxpayer subsidies for partial birth abortions and leave us to cover our own cancer treatments. Likewise we know full well that expanding unions won't be done in such a way as to actually help workers, it'll be done to expand the DNC political machine. We support raising teacher pay, we just know you won't actually do it- you'll hire drag queens for schools with the money instead. Etc, etc.
I am quite sure there's an equivalent effect where progressives support Trump's views on tariffs or whatever, but expect he'll try to make up for it by cutting top tax brackets. I don't know, I'm not a liberal and I don't interact with them on a regular basis, that example was probably stupid. But I'm quite sure you can get the general gist.
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