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Notes -
I posted a while back about Canada, its housing crisis, and the political implications, but I want to talk a bit more about the biggest social/political trend in Canada recently: temporary residents.
In 2024Q2 Canada had 3 million temporary residents, amounting to 7% of our national population. Over half of this total arrived since 2020. I say it all the time, but it is hard to appreciate the speed and scale of this change. Canada was 73% white in 2016, 69% in 2021, and is about 61% now. The share of Canada's resident population from South Asia is only a few percentage points lower than the black share in the U.S. It was only 4% in 2006. Temporary resident inflows plus our normal immigration stream which is among the highest on earth had led to population growth of over 3% per year since the pandemic.
This has put huge strain on our housing market of course which is now among the least affordable on earth. However, one underappreciated implication of this migration is the impact on labour markets. The arrivals are disproportionately low skill and compete with young Canadians. Over the past year as economic growth has slowed significantly, unemployment has begun to rise (now 6.6%) but for 15-24 year olds its nearly 20%.
Housing unaffordability remains near all time highs. We now have 2023 crime statistics showing another increase and erasing all progress since the late 1990s. Canada's total fertility rate data for 2023 came out last week and shows a big drop to 1.26 -- the lowest ever recorded and well below peer countries.
Young Canadians are now 58th most happy in the world. Old Canadians are 8th.
The country continues to circle the drain.
Million dollar question- so young Canadians want to leave, or no?
Like legal immigration to the US, Australia, etc is generally not easy, but is the mood among young Canadians a ‘we better get out of here’, yet?
Every young Canadian I've met thinks "America, Amirite?" Is the peak of humor and social commentary. They aren't going to move somewhere with guns and racism, which of course define the US.
I think Canadian men see American wages, which are often 2x for high skill professions and are very interested.
Then their wives remind them about abortion, no maternity leave, and school shootings and that’s the end of the conversation.
I think migration interest is highly gendered.
Can someone steelman why a wife would care enough about abortion that said wife would tank a doubling of income and a better life? That just seems insane.
The other two are a misunderstanding and innumeracy
Because expressing a willingness to move to America, especially a red state, from Canada impugns your progressive bona fides among your friends.
It really is that simple: “did you hear Claire is moving to Texas? I could never do that. Too many MAGAs down there, it’s crazy that she thinks she would fit in there. I went to Tampa once and everyone at the beach was white and you just know they all voted Trump. I was super uncomfortable”
But honestly who cares? If you are moving to the US, you will be forced to develop a new social group. So why care about the old?
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