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PaperclipPerfector
7mo ago
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Transnational Thursday for September 26, 2024
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Notes -
Some news from germany:
Bürgergeld-Skandal: The new welfare project by the current red-green-yellow government is exploding in costs. It was originally projected to cost ca 36 billion in 2025, but based on current estimates will cost 45 billion, i.e. a whopping 25% more. To give some perspective: The Bürgergeld is now almost 10% of the entire budget of ca 490 billion. In 2024, it was "merely" 27 billion.
Vote in Thüringen: This vote is considered an ill omen among almost the entire german elite. AfD, the new right (or far-right, depending on your viewpoint) is the strongest party and it's not even close. ALL other parties try to block the AfD from just about any position and power whatsoever, which in particular included a ridiculous scene when the age-based preliminary president from the AfD tried to just work through the official meeting agenda in parliament, but was constantly disturbed by the other parties asking for a later item to be moved forward (which was predictably about blocking the AfD from getting the position of president based on the fact that they are the largest party, which has so far always been the case, and which was agreed upon in the last government by the CDU back when they thought they'd get the majority). This is, of course, described by the media as the AfD-president "disturbing the parliament by constantly going back to the meeting agenda". In general, the entire current government coalition - SPD, Greens and FDP - lost a lot of votes in all the latest state elections, but the CDU can't really capitalize on it since many voters lost the trust in them.
Border controls: Due to the immigrant crisis deteriorating even faster than expected, the current government decided to institute a measure that formerly was claimed to be flat-out impossible based on EU law - border controls. The CDU in the opposition pressured for this as well. The problem is that they are completely ineffectual, pure showmanship. They only control large roads at easily recognizable border control placements. And as long as a person can utter the magic word "asylum" they get to go past anyway. Again, it is clear that the traditional main parties have very little interest in solving the immigrant crisis.
France is probably the clearest example of the old elites holding on to power via technicalities, but Germany is about two electoral cycles away from that being no longer tenable.
Since the whole traditional establishment essentially refuses to compete based on the largest political issues in Europe, the "alternative" or "populist" parties (not just AfD and RN, but BSW and LFI as well, with other examples elsewhere I could list if requested) are gaining steam on the edges. The way liberal democracy works, where traditional parties have a very highly integrated hold on media and social organizations, means that the electorate will likely choose all options in sequence before finally abandoning them all. We've already seen the last stage of this process play out in France, where remnants of old elites only got any reasonable percentage (though nowhere near majority) due to the deal with Mélenchon. While Germany is unlikely to have the same issue the very next election, where CDU is going to win based on voters nostalgia for Merkel years, there's no chance they can actually repair the problems it's facing.
Five years from now, the traditional parties, tracing their descent to West German political system, are going to be in the minority in Bundestag. Since the others will be both to the left and to the right of them, it will probably lead to some sort of a political crisis. And since Germany doesn't have the sort of strong presidency that France does, this crisis cannot be resolved in the same way.
Obviously something could happen in the meantime that will change the equation, but I just don't see it. The entirety of EU is enthusiastically running towards the edge of a cliff and I can't currently picture a way out...
Yes, would love some other examples.
Also, how much of a fad is BSW?
True Finns in Finland. The only reason the party ever got anywhere beyond a minor protest party is because all the other parties steadfastly refused to talk about immigration issues for two decades. As a result, they've gotten the second most seats in the last two elections and are currently in the government. This has also broken the old system of three traditional big parties and several smaller ones, with the Center Party being now just a shadow of its past size.
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