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The Political Horse Race Two Weeks Out
Apologies to our foreign or American friends who may be bored by the non-stop election coverage, but I just can't get enough.
A couple weeks ago I predicted with 50% confidence (the ultimate in weasly predictions) that we'd see an October surprise timed for maximum damage to the Trump campaign. I think we just saw the attempt. It was dumb as you could expect.
Yesterday, nearly every single media outlet in the country ran the same story. The story? John Kelly, Trump's former chief of staff, supposedly once said that Trump told him "Well, Hitler did a lot of good things". Kelly also said something about Trump praising Hitler's generals. The story was first reported in 2021. It was denied by Trump the next day.
Somehow, three years later, it was front page news in nearly every mainstream outlet. It was an incredible example of media discipline and coordination. See for yourself:
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=trump%20hitler%20comments
So... did it land? No I don't think so. Comparing people to Hitler is the oldest game in the book. Does anyone remember the Lyndon Larouche campaigners with their Obama-as-Hitler posters? Moreover, we've heard everything about Trump. 99% of people have made up their mind already. And Trump is also omnipresent. Today's Hitler story is yesterday's news as Trump appears on Rogan or works at McDonald's or eats a burrito bowl or something.
Harris tried to make the story work. In between cringe videos of her latest town hall appearance, her Twitter account tweeted this:
So how are the betting markets taking it? Well, there were a couple more flash crashes in Trump shares on Polymarket. Around midnight, his odds briefly dipped under 60%. Was it manipulation? I don't think so. To paraphrase Stanley Druckenmiller, sometimes it's better to just buy the rumor and then ask questions later. Maybe it was worth a gamble to see if the attack stuck.
As of right now, Trump is up near 65% again. Interestingly, his chances of winning the popular vote have crept up to about 40%. In polls, according to Real Clear Politics, Harris's nationwide lead has fallen to 0.3%, while Trump maintains a 0.9% edge in the seven swing states.
It really is too close to call at this point. Will we see a "real" October surprise against Trump? It feels unlikely. There just isn't any more unspent ammunition. Will the Trump campaign produce some valuable oppo research against Harris? Again, unlikely, since the media wouldn't report on it anyway.
The election is 12 days out, and many ballots have already been cast.
I guess I'll just use this thread to say: I fucking hate this election.
I hate my choices. I hate having to choose which shitty option might taste slightly less like shit. I hate choosing from two stupid, bumbling mediocre embarrassments and knowing one of them is going to be the fucking President of the United States of America. "Vote for the lesser of two evils" has been a motto representing resigned acceptance of political reality my entire life (I have the Cthulhu for President t-shirt and everything), but never have I felt it so keenly. They're both bad and repulsive, and I honestly don't know which of them will actually be worse for the country because I expect either of them to be terrible. I have said before I probably won't even vote, for the first time since I turned 18. (At least for president; I'll still probably vote for local/state candidates.)
And it's entirely the fault of both parties for putting us here. The Republicans, for letting MAGA cultists take over the party and drive all serious grown-ups out, and the Democrats, for letting bad faith woke identity politics take over everything. And both of them, for turning us into a gerontocracy that very effectively shuts younger candidates out before they can even sniff a primary.
If you held a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I guess it would be Kamala. But I might take the bullet instead.
I think Trump will be more damaging to the economy, and I think he will epically fuck up what's left of America's standing in the world. I think he will be an embarrassment who fails to accomplish any of the things his followers think he will (just like last time) and what he does accomplish he will fuck up. I think Harris will continue our inflationary money-isn't-real spiral into economic doom, hand out more gobs of cash to whatever identity group is most effective at yelling and screaming, and I think Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will roll her like a floured chicken breast. She's a midwit mediocrity who should never have come within line of sight of the Presidency, and I cannot believe how quickly I watched people in real time shift vibes to Kamala-enthusiasm, Kamalanation, Kamala is brat (W. T. F????) and pretend they had always been enthusiastic about her. Way back in 2019, when she was being floated as a Democratic candidate and I knew little about her, I admit I was tepidly favorable towards her because she seemed like maybe the least bad of a mediocre lot, but nothing she's done since has impressed, and she seems like Generic Extruded Political Product.
But, you know, Trump. I do not have TDS, I do not think he is Literally Hitler, but I do think he's a con, a huckster, an embarrassing buffoon who I believe actually loves America as much as I believe he goes to church on Sunday and has ever read the Bible in his life. I think he totally would become an absolute dictator if he could manage it, but it would require too much effort and political acumen and cunning, which he does not have. He has a huge personality and charisma, and some people think that translates into him being a skilled politician. He's not. He's got performer's instincts and a gift for graft. This doesn't really make him unique among American presidents, but it makes him uniquely bad in this time and place.
This sucks.
So I will repeat what I said a few weeks ago: my only consolation is going to be breaking out the popcorn and watching the wailing and gnashing of teeth post-election night. If Kamala wins, I will read the Motte and other places for the rage, the futile fist-waving, the impotent Internet tough-guy promises to Res1st and Retrn and start a civil war or some shit. If Trump wins, I will read Twitter for the wailing, the gnashing of teeth, and the hordes of smug, self-righteous fucks driven to existential despair, and I will drink their tears.
This is not nice, it is not charitable, it is not noble. It is petty and mean and beneath me. It is my coping mechanism, because this election sucks.
Don't forget the millions on millions of unvetted foreigners allowed in, allowed to stay, and who will drop anchor babies. Just look at this. It's obscene. One candidate is very clearly trying to ethnically cleanse me, my family, and my children. The other one isn't, and is instead saying "send them back." Mass deportations are a topic of conversation. As dumb as the talking point is, one wants sex changes for male prisoners paid for by the state, and the other doesn't. One wants boys in girls sports and men in women's sports, and the other doesn't.
I think you're wrong about this. He's been clear for decades that, if not loving America, he identifies with it and takes it personally when we are taken advantage of (trade, NATO) and made the fool.
I've never before voted for either major party in a Presidential election, but I am this year, and it's an easy choice, and I feel better about that I do about Jorgensen or Johnson or Stein. I'm still partial to my Nader vote, though.
This isn’t ethnic cleansing. She’s not deporting white Americans. She’s not forbidding white Americans from marrying other whites. She’s just importing lots of people for deficit financed cheap labor. This is bad, but words have meanings.
In 20 years we can check back in on these towns that had 50-100% of their existing population in "deficit financed cheap labor" airdropped on them. Assuming the <70 IQ third worlders stay, I'm pretty sure with the crime and destruction of institutions, along with the total deafness the political class has towards the legacy population's suffering, the area will be 75-99% ethnically cleansed.
And yes, words do have meaning. This is every bit an ethnic cleansing as the Jewish Pogroms in Russia, as the Goths or the Huns invading the late Roman Empire and pillaging the provinces (often under a fictitious appellation from the Emperor as the new "protector" of that province, even as they pillaged it and put it's natives to the sword or torch). It's every bit an ethnic cleansing as the "illegal settlements" in Gaza or the West Bank.
There are ways to remove populations from their ancestral ground short of putting them on trains and gassing them. Or putting them on a death march to a reservation. Just because it falls narrowly short of the worst ethnic cleansings in history doesn't mean it's not at least meeting the standard of several others which are widely considered ethnic cleansings.
Name them.
I’ve said before that I don’t like Haitians, if they were dumped in my neighborhood I would call my reps to demand that El transportador moved them somewhere nonspecific. But moving them in is just retarded, not ethnic cleansing.
The Plantation of Ulster
Thank you, that seems to fit.
As an Ulsterman I would say it does not fit, because while that was an ethnic cleansing (in my view) that is because the locals were forcibly removed from their land and forced into the worst areas with significant violence. In Springfield and other areas 30% or so of the population had left prior to any immigration, and weren't forced from their land as happened when my ancestors colonized Ulster. If anything it is the other way round, where they are being put in the undesirable areas, rather than taking the prime land forcibly from Americans.
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