Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
- 6
- 2
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Israel has begin bombing targets in Tehran. No word yet on the specific sites or casualties.
Looks like Israel took a very conservative route. Only military objects - which given Iran government a lot of deniability, you can't just come to a military base and see what really has been blown up there, so Iranians can claim anything they want internally about the damage. I understand a lot of air defense was hit, which serves double purpose: first, showing Iranians that they are vulnerable (since if air defense can't even protect itself, no chance they can protect anything else), and second, enabling further strikes with much more damaging results if they don't get the message. It also led to extremely low number of casualties, could probably be much higher if industry or infrastructure objects were hit. So basically Israel is telling Iran "we can hurt you real bad, but we choosing not to, take the message and calm down". We'll see if they would.
More options
Context Copy link
Netanyahu is making the most of his time before November 6th. He knows that a Kamala fumble on this could tank her campaign. So dude is bombing away her her hands are tied.
Iran, even more than Russia, is an information vacuum for western media. How stable is Khamenei's hold on Iran? Their economy is in the shitter. Khamenei at 85, could drop dead anytime. Their 2nd in command (Riasi) died this year. Now Iran has lost its proxies & is getting pummeled on their home ground. Their nuclear program has been knee-capped
Iran looks poised for a dirty succession battle. Iran has been run by clerics since the Shah was pushed out. So, the next supreme leader would need to be a cleric. Riasi was being groomed as a fellow Ayatollah and Prime minister, but he's dead. The current PM is a moderate doctor with insufficient religious creds. Khamenei's son is an Ayatollah, but isn't well liked. And every other person in running is either just as old (80+) or too weak.
There's a stark difference in Tehran's liberal temperament vs the hyper-conservative country side. I don't see Iran staying in it's Post-80s backwater state for much longer. Iran has the same HDI as China & with infinite oil. As a free market economy, it could pass Turkey/Mexico in productivity within a decade or two. With Hezbollah and Hamas defused, what's the point of being an anti-western Shia Islamist nation ?
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
What the hell is going on in the UK?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/31295918/nuclear-submarine-food-low-sweets/
The usual patrol for these nuclear missile submarines is supposed to be no more than 80 days but the shocking state of the Royal Navy means that subs are going on 6 month patrols. There aren't enough subs seaworthy at any given time.
I note that it is the Sun and the UK govt has denied that the crew were starving, so it might all be massively exaggerated.
As far as I know, British nuclear missile subs still operate without permissive action links. There is nothing anyone can do (short of using a torpedo) to stop them firing their nuclear warheads at will. I think it should be a very high priority to avoid any chaos or dysfunction on these vessels. I understand why Dominic Cummings has been constantly shrieking and wailing about the UK's nuclear strategy if this is what's happening.
Probably just being exaggerated. Soldiers (and presumably sailors) love to whinge. It's their greatest pastime. I would guess the Sun has picked up on independent snippets and packaged them together and fed them to an amenable ex-navy source for the 'Horrific' quote. It wouldn't surprise me if all of the events happened on different trips and the 6 month patrol only happened once.
The minor points in the story are practically meaningless as independent issues. The big issue though is indeed having a 6 month patrol. No one signs up for that. It's telling that even this story is worried about food, but not focused on the psychological toll on the crew for being away from home for so long, while living in claustrophobic conditions with censored communications. While the 6 month patrol was likely a one off, the govt should increase funding to get the maintenance situation under control.
The Sun says they're routinely doing 6-month patrols, I haven't verified it though I guess you could check whenever submarines leave port:
It's really an issue with priorities. I get the sense that funds can be quickly found for housing asylum seekers in hotels (or whatever crisis is in the newspapers this week). But Treasury penny-pinching is left to harangue the nuclear forces, precisely because they're more professional and less prone to bitching to the media.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link