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PaperclipPerfector  6mo ago (text post)   34900 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 28, 2024

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There’s been a major swing in predictions markets with Harris gaining serious momentum.

this is due to a new Selzer poll. Selzer is apparently one of the most highly credible polling firms out there, with very high historical accuracy, and it shows Harris winning Iowa by several points. If true, this signifies a potential Harris blowout victory across the entire country.

Either way, it seems polling is fundamentally broken for calling elections now. Emerson is showing a 10 point lead for Trump in Iowa. All the other polls showed Trump ahead for a long time, but they either were subject to “herding” or were just massively off in the opposite direction of previous elections.

Previously I thought Trump had a pretty solid shot at winning this but I’m seriously thinking Harris has it in the bag now, against all odds.

Well, I'll toot my own horn:

I called it.

Quoth me 12 days ago:

I also expect the markets to narrow in a bit as we come closer to the election and people decide to close out their positions at a marginal profit rather than actually take the dice roll. If somebody bought a bunch of Trump shares at ~45-50% and can sell them for 55-60% that's a decent profit for a short period trade.

Wasn't sure if they'd get right back to 50-50, but when there's THIS MUCH actual uncertainty (everyone has their vibes, but there simply no trustworthy, unbiased way to call the election in advance) then the 'money' has to return to baseline because very few people are willing to keep their funds at risk all the way to the final bell.

Previously I thought Trump had a pretty solid shot at winning this but I’m seriously thinking Harris has it in the bag now, against all odds.

Lmao. Harris doesn't have any single advantage that Biden lacked going into 2020, and has a number of disadvantages.

My personal expectations, in order of decreasing confidence: Trump squeaker win. Kamala Squeaker win. Trump blowout.

A Kamala Blowout doesn't seem possible, and my post up there explained my thoughts:

So in short, she's got the die-hard Dem base + the anti-Trump brigade on lock, but I think she utterly lacks cross-demographic appeal AND has been boxed in by the dueling demands of demographics they DO have support from, such that any attempts to outreach sincerely to outgroups will be interpreted as defection.

Which demographics is she pulling in 2024 that Biden DIDN'T pull in 2020? Make the case for me because I don't see any way she pulls better numbers than Biden. I can buy that Trump might do a bit worse than he did in 2020.

Which demographics is she pulling in 2024 that Biden DIDN'T pull in 2020?

…even MORE women? That’s the only demo I can see since it’s A) a female president nominee, and B) abortion.

Yeah, I do expect the gender split to be significant.

Because I'm also sure a lot of guys will peel off because holy SHIT the Harris campaign has been horrible at marketing to males, in particular white ones. Not sure if that means they'll come out for Trump, though.

There's certainly an argument that higher female turnout relative to male could tilt it for her.

Yes, I'm certain it's going to come down to turnout, and that's where the Democrat machine has an unbeatable advantage. They've got people going door to door making sure the right people's ballots are collected here, in a place where turnout literally doesn't matter because half the Democrats are running unopposed or against 5 different permutations of the People's Socialist Environmental Indigenous Justice Party For Killing Whitey.
If they're doing organization like that just for fun in a blue state, I doubt there'll be a single ballot unharvested in swing states.

Fascinating.

Had you heard that the GOP has tightened the voter registration gap in PA by about 300k?

Do we recall that Biden won PA by 70k in 2020., and the GOP has gained support since then.

Do we think the Dems were more or less efficient at ballot harvesting that year?

Do we think the GOP might be more or less organized at getting out the vote in 2024?

Just thinking out loud. Like I said, Kamala has no advantage that Biden lacked, and some apparent disadvantages.

Seems absurd to expect her to do better than 2020 Biden.

Kamala has no advantage that Biden lacked

Except what Curtis Yarvin dubs "Moore's Law of election 'fortification.'"

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