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naraburns  nihil supernum  5mo ago (text post)   27912 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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Vox has an interesting article with 4 reasons why Trump will win and 5 reasons why Harris will win.

Longtime forum dwellers may know me as someone almost universally wrong when it comes to electoral predictions that are non-obvious, but I find the reasons for a Trump win more persuasive than the reverse, particularly when it comes to polling on the economy, more registered republicans than democrats, and the democratic candidate being VP to a very unpopular president, which has historically been a near ironclad portent of defeat.

But I’m still not sure. I would not be surprised with a Harris victory, but I would rate it as less likely than a Trump victory based off my impression of polling and voter priorities so far.

the democratic candidate being VP to a very unpopular president, which has historically been a near ironclad portent of defeat.

On the other hand, the Republican candidate was an unpopular President. I don't think we have much data on former Presidents running for a non-consecutive second term after losing reelection once. How many have done that, just Cleveland and Roosevelt?

Technically, Roosevelt didn't lose reelection. He was very popular but didn't seek reelection in 1908, and Taft was his chosen successor.

He feuded with Taft and ran again in 1912.

I know; I'm pointing out that he didn't run for a non-consecutive term after losing reelection once.

Right, that makes sense. I forgot what I had said in my original comment, so I misunderstood your response.

You're right of course. I responded to you without viewing the post you responded to.

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