With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.
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Notes -
Yesterday, I put down various cash bets around Harris winning the Popular vote. "Surely Dems win the popular vote regardless of the electoral college!"
I actually was convinced that I was onto a free money glitch by buying "Harris/Dems win the popular vote" at 25cents. I also put bets into "Trump wins 2/3/4/5/6 swing states", neglecting to even consider he wins all seven swing states.
Whoops, NOPE! I'm grossly miscalibrated. I actually did not have faith in prediction markets, and thought all "dumb" rep voters were skewing Polymarket/Kalshi etc. I'm laughing at myself that I actually thought I'm not at the top of the bell curve.
How do i get better at this? Some of my current thinking is:
what else have i missed? Gotta think on this more.
Maybe I will do more small prediction market bets to hone my forecasting. Does anyone here know if this is a skill that can be honed and trained, without dedicating your entire life to it?
I've been really thinking about how gendered this election is. I use Instagram. If I could turn off every woman in my feed for the next week and the past one, I would take that option in a heartbeat.
My wife is a fairly conservative catholic and has been heavily swayed by her friends opinions and groupthink. You and I are here and in a twitter algorithm bubble - Women are marinating in snapchat, insta, and group threads in which 75% of of the people are (for lack of a better term) screeching about politics. Relentlessly.
There has been an extremely loud contingent of women both angry and confident in Harris throughout the election. Men are subservient to women's opinions. Myself included albeit at a reduced intensity than some.
If I were to update a prior it would be to discount the female voice slightly more than I normally do. I think they either don't know they're blinding themselves through their strength (the ability to compel silence/dishonesty in men) or do not care.
Women are subject to groupthink, but only on surface level. I think it is a strategy of conflict avoidance and reducing negative emotions. But privately they act differently. There are many examples regarding this, just remember the whole "man vs bear" kerfuffle, another example is when women rate each other's looks in public when they give huge bumps even to obviously hideous women. I heard a theory that this is evolutionary strategy, women are more vulnerable and therefore tend to be more "socialistic" for lack of better term - at least on the outside. But privately they are as aggressive and vicious as men especially in social environment, they just have to be careful not to be seen as such. Saying something out loud and then voting differently is prime example of such behavior, similar to being all smiley and warm toward another woman only to "carefully" badmouth her behind her back by using wannabe compliments in game of social status.
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