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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   1558 thread views

Transnational Thursday for November 7, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Some news stories I'm tracking; thoughts welcome on any of them, particularly the first two.

South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600-700 tonnes of rice to North Korea, a salary of US$2,000 for North Korean soldiers deployed in Ukraine, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula. With around 10,000 North Korean troops expected to be deployed to Ukraine, this could generate over US$200 million annually for Pyongyang. The 4 million tonnes of grains that North Korea says it produces per year are actually about 1 million tonnes short of what it needs to feed the country.

Six people have been killed in NY after a "subway surfing" trend, where people get on top of subway trends, has been going "viral". The number is really small, but the vector "social media leads people to do really stupid shit" seems like it could scale (anorexia and tumblr, lying flat in China, etc.) Admittedly, the subway surfing in question looks pretty lit.

There is a crunch in the transformer industry

Canada's National Cyber Threat Assessment classifies India a "state adversary"

198 killed, 111 injured in separate terrorist attacks in Pakistan during October.

Volcano erupted in Indonesia, killing ten people (and thousands will be relocated), but the region has a lot of volcanoes and a lot of people.

Myanmar <> India border conflict. Over 200 people have died, 60,000 displaced, and 30 km of fencing completed. The influx of refugees from Myanmar, over 60,000 in Mizoram and 5,000 in Manipur,

The Houthis have developed what they call a "marching submarine", something between a moveable landmine and an unmanned submarine.

Veterinarians back mass testing of milk for avian flu

Egypt hosted Fatah <> Hamas post war Gaza talks

US Deploys B-52 Bombers and Missile Destroyers in Warning to Iran Amid Escalating Regional Tensions

Another Hezbollah commander killed

Houthis pledge to continue red sea attacks despite Israeli asset sales. They allege that Israeli shipping companies are transferring assets to avoid detection.

Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in Iran, damaging their missile program and air defenses.

Israel Ends Agreement With UN Agency Providing Aid in Gaza

Israel has ended the agreement enabling the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees to operate, citing alleged infiltration by Hamas, a claim the agency denies.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and appointed Israel Katz as his successor. The move comes following open disagreements between Netanyahu and Gallant over the management of Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Thousands protested the move in Tel Aviv

Palestinians say Israel struck Gaza clinic during polio campaign; army denies it

Lebanon filed a formal complaint against Israel at the United Nations following deadly explosions caused by rigged communication devices. Shows how impotent Lebanon is imho

The Philippine military has opened two weeks of combat drills in the South China Sea, with more than 3,000 personnel participating in maneuvers that include seizing an island. The drills have raised tensions with China, which claims most of the South China Sea.

Newly revealed documents show that Russia's proposed agreement to end the special operation in 2022 included giving up Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, reducing Ukraine's military size, prohibiting missile development, joining NATO

Mariana Katzarova, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Russia, reported on the widespread and systematic use of torture by Russian authorities to oppress and control society. The torture has worsened during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with thousands of Ukrainian civilians detained, deported, and tortured in Russian prisons. Despite the shocking human rights violations, Katzarova hopes for a constructive dialogue with Russian officials to address the issues. Note that the source is Voice of America; a US state-controlled outlet.

Russian operatives shipped two incendiary devices in attempts to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft heading to the U.S. and Canada. DHL was used to ship electric massagers containing a magnesium-based flammable substance as part of a covert Russian sabotage campaign. Seems like an escalation of US<>Russia tensions.

There are ongoing jihadist insurgencies in Chad, Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Niger. These are generally attacking Christians, causing large population movements,

Chaucer has launched a new nuclear insurance policy called CyNuC to provide insurance cover for cyberattacks on nuclear power plants. It doesn't include war and hostile state-sponsored action though. I thought this was cool.

Sudan conflict spirals into civil war, if it hadn't already

The US State Department is giving some assistance to Somalia's police to build counterterrorism capacity. state-funded radio show in Poland replaced all its presenters with experimental AI hosts. This initially increased listenership but then sparked backlash.

Another case of the new, more infectious mpox strain (clade 1b) has been detected in the UK, bringing the total confirmed number of cases to four. The cases are all from the same household

Norway invests ~22M USD in global pandemic preparedness

Global pandemic accord negotiations continue

Scientists track emergence of novel H5N1 flu reassortant in Cambodia The novel reassortant virus combines genes from two H5N1 clades and has worrisome mutations, including one linked to adaptation to mammals and airborne transmission. This is kind of the next worrying step between on the way between now and H5N1 being a global pandemic.

UK government to create surveillance system for future pandemics

UK raises avian influenza risk level to high

The US carried a test of its Minuteman III missile, to showcase its nuclear readiness

600-700 tonnes

surely more?

per soldier I guess

Makes much more sense, still kinda blows my mind.

Looking into this a bit more, using a stack-based fermi estimation tool I like

600K 700K # tonnes of rice
=> 600.00K 700.00K
* 1K # kg in a tone
=> 600.00M 700.00M
* 1.2K 1.4K # calories per kg of rice
=> 753.25B 936.74B
/ 1.9K 2.5K # daily caloric intake
=> 323.46M 459.24M
/ 25M 28M # population of NK
=> 12.12 17.51
/ 365 # years of food this buys
=> 0.033 0.048
/ 1% # as a percentage
=> 3.32 4.80
exit

So Russia is giving 3-5% of North Korea's caloric intake, and NK previously was short maybe 5-10%. Somewhat wild.

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