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Yeah, this is the eternal threat, right? But ok, what are these people going to do? How many jobs in America are there that pay as much as medicine and aren’t ’top of the corporate pile after a 40 year career’ type jobs?
Very, very few.
A few jobs in big tech. A few jobs in front office high finance. A few jobs in big law. A relative handful in (other) professional services.
None of those professions have medicine-tier job security. All of them (save maybe big tech) have very long hours. All of them are ultra-competitive.
Doctors on the internet always seem to assume they could be investment bankers or deepmind engineers instead, but I don’t think they could. The truth is that medicine is a lot less competitive and more midwit than most of these jobs. Plus, most of these jobs have an extreme up-or-out career progression that medicine just doesn’t have. Of a thousand junior investment bankers at Goldman Sachs who already passed an application process with a 1% acceptance rate, how many become managing directors or seniors in PE? Maybe thirty or forty. Most end up failing out into comfortable PMC professions, often paid less than many medical specialties and again still with far, far less job security.
Plus, there’s status. Nobody in modern American society has higher status than doctors, not billionaires and certainly not bankers, lawyers or engineers. That also has value - socially and for one’s own ego - that can’t be measured solely in pecuniary terms.
Even if medicine paid half as much there would still be doctors. There are still huge numbers of bright eyed, intelligent college students with elite credentials who want to be journalists.
I know you hate that argument so I very specifically didn't make it this time.
Based off your historical unwillingness to update your understanding of anesthesia compensation and work duties I don't think we are going to have a fruitful discussion on the doctor skills/role and work alternatives side of things.
By the way, and I truly am sorry if you’ve gotten that impression, I have a great deal of respect for doctors. I think you do a great job, and I think you should be well-paid for it. And and, I think doctors’ pay is only one part of the issue with the US system’s immense inefficiencies, of which a great deal can be laid at the feet of Congress, insurance companies (not out of ‘evil’ or even the profit motive, but just because of the perverse regulatory and incentive environment they’ve been out in), the way big pharma is funded and to some extent the tragedy of the commons.
My only real ‘thought’ on doctor pay is that we should have more doctors. Let’s train them, let’s import them (from native english-speaking countries with decent standards, like our peers in the anglosphere), let’s do whatever it takes to increase residency spaces. And let’s make residency easier, let’s limit medical liability to bring down the ridiculous cost of malpractice insurance, let’s make medicine an undergraduate course like it is elsewhere so doctors don’t have to waste four years and more money going into debt.
But yes, ultimately, let’s work to bring down some salary costs. Is that so unreasonable?
Do these people want to come? I'm not sure they do.
Usually when this conversation comes up what happens is that I say something like "sure increase supply just don't compromise quality" and then someone says "being a doctor is easy, there aren't really quality differences or problems" I recall this argument from you in the past but if you don't endorse it now no problem, but ultimately most supply increasing options involve compromising quality in some way. Americans are mostly uninterested in decreasing quality, but if we decide that's on the table then we have a lot more tools available to solve some of these problems without touching supply at all.
Also, right now we seem to be in a situation where shortages are pronounced enough that the market can absorb a much higher number of physicians without bringing salaries down. In fact we likely need to increase salaries (specifically: one of the biggest problems right now is that people will refuse to work in red states or rural areas, these jobs already offer higher salaries, sometimes as much as twice as much, but in some cases that's not enough).
We already have some evidence that salaries are too low for some needs, taking salaries down further is liable to make those issues first (and again does little to decrease the overall healthcare costs).
I would be interested to hear @self_made_human respond to this, if willing.
Doctors from the Anglosphere?
Yes. At least some parts of it.
For example, British doctors are massively disgruntled, and a significant portion of them are trying to leave the country, though as always, the majority of people anywhere don't really want to emigrate. When Brits run, it's usually easier to go to Australia or New Zealand, where wages are markedly higher, work life balance is better, and their credentials are recognized as equivalent with little faffing around. Some opt for Canada.
Aus/NZ doctors are largely content, and only a small number want to move, and when they do the US is their goal most of the time.
If licensing regimes like the USMLE were relaxed for these specific countries, I doubt you wouldn't see a 2-5x efflux, comparable to the boost in salary they'd see, even if the working hours are worse.
Hell, I'd go if I could, I opted for the UK because I didn't have a better choice for long and painful reasons. Depending on how the job market looks in 3-6 years and if the barriers go, I could well be tempted in the future.
I'd say doctors from these countries are competent, especially native ones, I've certainly been nothing but impressed. They make do with shit wages and a QOL that is worse in many ways because of the UK being a stagnant country, but they're sticking around both because of inertia and because the US isn't easy to go to. They're seeing their own wages stagnate, and face stiff competition from international medical graduates (like yours truly, I have to look out for my own interests), training is unnecessarily long and painful, and many don't need more than a nudge to reconsider.
Thanks! I guess for context I considered you as "part of the Anglosphere", although there are different degrees of centrality to that concept. I remember you had a couple (interesting, IMHO) posts a while back about how difficult the US regime would have made transferring your education credentials.
I'd imagine most people here would consider the "Anglosphere" to be the Commonwealth countries plus the US, I doubt India would come to mind for them. While we have a gazillion English speakers, it's not strictly the language of the majority! I would hope that I qualify for honorary membership nonetheless haha.
I'm uniquely screwed when it comes to practising in the US, I won't elaborate since you seem to recall my moaning before, but even in an ideal world, I'd be looking at the USMLE and 3 years of residency. I haven't heard of anyone actually getting those requirements waived if they're a credentialed specialist elsewhere, but that could be my ignorance as opposed to me denying @Throwaway05 's claims. It's not a formalized route at any rate.
I suspect what's happening is that in general you have to redo residency but they keep it open as a possibility to get things waived in order to potentially steal somebody important. That resolves the tension between the anecdote (which I agree with) and the language on the website.
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