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From /u/gwern (@gwern ?): analysis on China’s semiconductor industry.
Recent export controls are directly targeting the Chinese ability to fabricate cutting-edge chips. The subsequent effect on electronics prices and the much-maligned supply chain won’t be pleasant—especially for China, and especially if their industry is already slumping. Consequences for the rest of the world are left as an exercise to the reader.
Given the forum, it’s not surprising that the focus is on AI. I’m more interested in the geopolitical outlook. This is an incentive to retaliate, perhaps even against the other regional semiconductor fabricator. And it is suggested that the timing is a calculated insult to Chinese leadership, as they are apparently going through a periodic dog-and-pony show of elections. Gwern suggests that China would otherwise be raising hell.
The counterpart in US domestic politics: crunching semiconductor supply will not mix well with inflation. I don’t think adding $50 to the next iPhone will make or break Democrats, but it seems unlikely to help.
I want to place predictions, but I don’t have a good grasp of the metrics involved. Place your bets, I guess, for:
China taking economic action
China taking military action
Consequences on Chinese industry
Tech policy towards China becoming a wedge issue in American politics
Depends on, if in this context, strength is the ability to impose one’s will, or the ability to endure pain. Trump knew Afghanistan was a lost cause, and that the stay crowd were akin to beaten stockbrokers insisting no loss would actually be realized until they closed their position. But his favorite generals told him he would look bad, so he chickened out and kicked the can down the road.
Biden decided to eat the poop sandwich, and endure performative rage about 13 dead U.S. soldiers that dwarfs whatever anger remains about the first 2,400 that were killed. He correctly figured if he did it at the start of his term, people would be focused on other concerns come the 2024 campaign, if not midterms.
His polling after that took a huge hit and never recovered. It shattered the feeling that he was competent. In hindsight he would've been better kicking it down the road to December 2022.
It took a hit, yes. That it did not recover is due to a multitude of other factors. Inflation, calling out for dead congresswomen, etc.
And, ripping the bandaid off after 20 years of occupation produced a government that couldn’t last a week on its own was the most competent thing Biden has done. I know it inflamed the wounded nationalism of some, upset the NatSec sources many in the press rely upon, and turned off a $2.3 trillion tap, which the military industrial complex was momentarily angry about (until Russia invaded Ukraine). But, it’s not something that’s currently polling among voters with any significance.
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