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Notes -
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It's interesting to me that you pretty much blame the herky-jerky USA on the basis of cui bono; but absolve the opaque and determined PRC despite seeing it benefit as well.
The ChiComs are historically capable of extended operations, their collective founding mythology of themselves is based on extended organized effort across difficult to impossible circumstances to achieve long term historically inevitable goals. It's right in their wheelhouse to execute a 30 year plan.
The USA is historically incompetent at the long con. The short attention span of the electorate leaves policy areas ignored for decades, then brought back into focus by a clever charlatan, then lost again just as quickly. Rapprochement becomes heightening tensions becomes Reset Button becomes spooky accusations of pseudo-alliance becomes violent enmity. It's tough to draw a through line across the Clinton, Bush II, Obama, Trump, and Biden admins; it's impossible, really, you have to pin this one on the deep state to expect it to get done. The USA is simply not competent to that kind of process, there's too many possible swerves.
If only a deep state can do it, doesn't that raise the odds that the country that is basically deep-state-only did it?
At any rate, unless you really believe the idea that Putin is in on it, the plan would have fallen apart had Putin simply decided against the invasion. Even assuming that everyone else in power in Russia wanted to invade, Putin had the power to prevent the invasion; and that leaves the whole operation in that category of fictional plots that depend on the protagonist knowing exactly what his opponent will do.
Fuck that's a good line.
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