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There is a lot of talk right now about whether the Israel-Hamas ceasefire / hostage release deal is a good thing or not.
One thing I don't see brought up is that maybe the best thing for Israel to do would be to sign the deal, get the hostages back, and then immediately just ignore the deal and spend the next couple of years killing every Hamas member on the face of the planet.
I don't really see much downside. What would people do in the future as a result? Not trust Israel as a deal-maker? By and large, groups that would be in the position to sign a deal with Israel already either don't trust Israel or have no choice because Israel has overwhelming military force. Political entities generally do not sign peace agreements because they trust each other, they sign peace agreements because they view doing so as being better than the alternatives.
Another possible downside would be that in the future, groups would just kill Israelis instead of taking any hostages... but again, would this really be that bad for Israel? Would 10/7 have been much worse for Israel if Hamas had killed every single person that they ended up taking hostage immediately instead of taking them hostage? Well yes, for the few currently surviving hostages it would have been worse, but I figure that overall probably more Israeli lives would be saved by Israel making it clear that hostage taking is an ineffective approach than by Israel right now signing a deal that effectively signals that taking Israeli hostages has some degree of effectiveness.
I hope they do. The frustration of the whole thing is that because Hamas survived and is getting a deal, they’re going to use this plan again. It essentially worked. They’re getting their prisoners released, most of who, are members of Hamas, the Strip will be rebuilt, and they not only get to keep power, but because they have the sympathy of the Arab world, can rearm easily.
At the same time, Israel has essentially capitulated. They get nothing except the hostages. They are also much more hamstrung as to what kinds of action can be taken when Hamas rearms for another round. The propaganda networks are in place, and the Palestinians have learned to play PR rope a dope by making sure that anything Israel does is seen as genocide.
Hamas leaders have a lot of skin in the game. They will think twice before trying this again because at a minimum it will lead to their own deaths.
Israel has proven that they can get to anyone. They executed Hamas's top leader. They destroyed nearly the entire leadership of Hezbollah.
"But they're religious zealots who will gladly die for the cause!"
I don't think so. Would a religious zealot steal hundreds of millions of dollars from his people to live in luxury in Qatar like Khaled Mashal did? These are corrupt, evil people who don't want to get their crotch blown off by a cell phone.
Nothing can bring back the dead hostages. Nothing can undo the rapes and beatings they suffered at the hands of evil men. Sometimes, the only thing one can do is exact revenge. And Israel's revenge has been terrible. It's time now for peace.
If this was the case the October 6th status quo was perfect for Hamas. And yet...
Yeah, eventually Gaza will forget what happened and the cycle will begin again.
But that's not a reason for a forever war.
The ideal solution in the eyes of the western left is the complete Israeli capitulation and return of the holyland to the muslims as part of the wider "decolonization" movement. The the muslims are themselves conquerers and colonists is conviently ignored.
The ideal solution in the eyes of the western right is the final destruction of Hamas, Hezbollah, Et Al. At the hands of the IDF through a combination of support for a long-term ally and a sentiment of "rabid dogs get put down".
Forever war is the compromise position.
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