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While it's entirely possible Trump is absolutely excited to apply tariffs all around, my perception is that for Canada and Mexico his goals are more to use it as a "big stick" to get them in line with his goals: "your entire economy depends on us and I have the power to ruin you, so here's what I want you to do", like how he used it as a threat with the Colombian president refusing deportation flights
Canada's economic interaction with the US doesn't seem to be harmful in terms of the US's long-term economic success: "you send us oil, we refine it and sell it back to you" is actually a pretty good setup for the US. If anything, it seems to paint the Canada-US relationship similarly to the US-China relationship, where not building domestic industrial capacity leaves the former dependent on the latter.
The question then becomes whether Canada will cave sufficiently to Trump's desires, and I can see there being some pain there: Canada's tended to frame itself as "the US, but properly enlightened" and I expect that will lead to some #RESIST and trying to get Trump to cave first, and I'm reasonably confident Trump will actually pull the trigger if it comes to it.
They and what government? Provinces are already conducting foreign diplomacy; that's supposed to be the Federal government's job, but they're too busy waging the Capital's pet culture war against the rest of the country and the PM too busy quiet(ish)-quitting to bother with this.
If the Canadian government was smart they'd put pressure on the foreign workers "on loan" to the US; educated and competent workers are something the US temporarily imports significant numbers of from this country, and they can just as soon be taken away. But again, that would require something resembling a strategy. (I'm half-expecting him to announce a tariff on arms and related equipment and call it a day, since Canadians can't legally buy the guns these days and ammunition getting more expensive is symbolic/a culture war objective.)
What are you suggesting? That Canada make it illegal to work in the US?
Last I counted, roughly 1 in 20 high-skill Canadian workers currently work in the US on non-immigrant visas.
Demanding they return, which could be accomplished in a variety of ways, would be relatively disruptive to the Americans (or force them into a relatively awkward position in granting citizenship to what are supposed to be non-immigrant workers).
NAFTA doesn't just mean a lack of tariffs; that Canada should permit the brain-drain was part of the negotiations.
Are you sure it wouldn't be more disruptive to Canada?
First, 5% of Canada's workers is not 5% of America's workers.
Second, American companies can scramble and hire someone from the rest of the world. I don't know what kind of jobs we're talking about, but I imagine at least some of them can be done online, making the replacement process a bit easier. Canada will have 5% of it's workforce pissed off at losing an American salary, and with no guarantee there's any job waiting for them back home.
Also, this move is easily countered by the US, they can literally just say "don't worry, bro, you can stay here as long as you want". How many of these people would rather cut off the US in favor of Canada, rather than the other way around?
I don't think Canada cares nor is in any position to care.
They already have 100% of the workforce pissed off at having their COL jump another 20% overnight. And honestly, they can do business here, and work on making Canada better rather than America. Of course that would require a pro-growth government, which the sitting one is very much not, but one step at a time.
The ones that are worth it- the engineers, the scientists, the programmers. There's a list of occupations subject to this; generally if not exclusively requiring at least a Sciences degree.
I already answered this.
I think Canada does care. Most Canadians have relatives who live in the US and would care that their lives would be disrupted.
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