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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   30935 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 7, 2022

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In Ukraine news: Russia to withdraw from city of Kherson

As said in the article, this seems like big news, since Kherson was the only "big city" Russia has conquered in this period of war. Even the pro-Russian sources I follow on Twitter aren't trying to spin this ("Feint! Planned withdrawal! Actually good for Russia!") any more.

Of course this means that the new defensive line is harder to crack, but really, at some point, you'd imagine sheer morale questions would make it hard for Russians to proceed, at least. Where will the Ukrainians push next?

Objective milestone that decidedly disproves, along with the izyum-lyman offensive, the main claim from russia bulls, that russia would keep gaining territory at the expense of ukraine indefinitely. Specifically I remember a claim that Kharkov would fall to russia before Kherson falls to ukraine. And Kherson falling was one of Karlin’s conditions for being proven wrong. Where are all you people now ? You owe us an update, an apology, a delta, or something.

Where were those people before? I don't recall seeing that position in posts here, though it's of course possible that they were simply rendered invisible by excessive downvotes.

Please, see some of the responses to my request for Ukraine prediction in July for people that may need to update their priors.

For example, someone said there was less than a 5% chance that Ukraine would conquer more than Russia in the following 2 months and that there was less than a 5% chance that Ukraine would make ANY significant gains.

https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/w1s5b7/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_july_18_2022/ih9i22f/?context=3

That seems to be Shakesneer, the one person it does seem this discussion is converging towards seeing as being likely very miscalibrated regarding Russian prospects as of three months ago. No other predictions in there strike me as declaring the reality we since observed particularly unlikely.

Interesting to review though, thanks for the link.

HlynkaCG had the best prediction on the old Motte that I am aware of, though.

https://old.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/wda188/culture_war_roundup_for_the_week_of_august_01_2022/iiq2xzd/?context=3

My pleasure.

The other one of note is Bearjew saying that Ukraine having a 35% of holding Kramatorsk through the end of the year was optimistic, implying that there was more than a 65% that Russia would take it.

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