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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   Edited 2yr ago   19858 thread views

USA Election Day 2022 Megathread

Tuesday November 8, 2022 is Election Day in the United States of America. In addition to Congressional "midterms" at the federal level, many state governors and other more local offices are up for grabs. Given how things shook out over Election Day 2020, things could get a little crazy.

...or, perhaps, not! But here's the Megathread for if they do. Talk about your local concerns, your national predictions, your suspicions re: election fraud and interference, how you plan to vote, anything election related is welcome here. Culture War thread rules apply, with the addition of Small-Scale Questions and election-related "Bare Links" allowed in this thread only (unfortunately, there will not be a subthread repository due to current technical limitations).

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So looks like I can review my prior thoughts on the PA statewide campaigns. Oz and Mastriano represented the two faces of Trump: celebrity crypto-moderate and blood-red culture warrior.

If Both win, then we're probably seeing a Red Wave, and Trump 2024 is a near certainty, because voters are embracing both the Christian Nationalist and Quack Celebrity Pseudo-Moderate strains. If Mastriano teaches Shapiro how to Dougie, but Oz quacks out against Fetterman, then it would seem that Trumpism has left behind the cable-tv popularity contests in favor of raw rightist culture warring, and if an anti-abortion extremist can win in PA then there may be hope for the pro-life movement nationally. If Oz beats up a stroke victim, but Mastriano loses to a Jewish government lawyer, then it would seem to indicate that Trumpian candidates are better off triangulating towards vague moderation than fighting for pure culture war idealism. If both lose, then the lesson would seem to be that only Trump is Trump, and other Republicans would do better not to try to follow him too closely.

Most of the results are in, and it looks like both lost pretty conclusively. I would frame that as a pretty conclusive rejection of Trumpism, lock stock and barrel. It's really tough for me, as a local Republican, to look at this and not think that McCormick would have taken this election walking away if he hadn't run against his own best attributes; and Bill McSwain probably puts up a stronger fight for Governor with policies that are sane instead of policies like Abolish Public Schools with No Plan to Replace Them. There was a Red Wave coming in to shore, but PA republican primary voters chose candidates who couldn't swim. We could have kept Toomey's seat, and chose not to; and at least avoided a gubernatorial candidate that was a massive anchor dragging everyone else down. This will probably cost the Rs a SCOTUS seat, and possibly more. The stink of Oz and Mastriano might waft on through 2024 if they aren't shuffled off stage fast enough.

It's possible to frame this as a relative "win" for the Oz wing of Trumpism, on the theory that Doug got blown the fuck out while Oz lost narrowly; Fetterman should be sending Mastriano flowers and taking him out to dinner for saving Fetterman's ass by encouraging D turnout. But the difference is more likely to be explained by differences in the quality of their opponents. Shapiro was popular, well known, moderate and ran a tight campaign. Fetterman was doing pretty well, right up until he went from looking like Gritty to sounding like Gritty, and he was always a more radical left wing candidate at a time of high inflation. That Oz couldn't beat out a stroke victim with a spending plan that makes Bernie look like Grover Norquist is a pretty conclusive nail in the Trumpian crypto-moderate coffin.

Given that PA is likely to remain a critical swing state in 2024, Republicans should be looking at this result when picking a presidential candidate and honing a strategy. Arguably Trump is already triangulating against the culture war end of the party, labeling his likely opponent "Ron DeSanctimonious." Desantis should note this as well, and aim to moderate on the culture war front in favor of competence and general good governance principles. And the Rs should strongly consider running a true moderate candidate, an R governor from a blue state, like Hogan or Phil Scott; if they feel Desantis already poisoned the well with his goofy-ass Disney fight and such.

goofy-ass Disney fight

I feel like this reflects a failure to grasp the best of what DeSantis represents. Now, the Martha's Vineyard thing was, I think, a mistake, most especially since the immigrants involved didn't even leave from Florida. But Disney came out swinging against DeSantis. It wasn't his "goofy-ass...fight," it was Disney's goofy-ass fight. DeSantis' only real choice there was to remind them that they are a corporation and tell them to get back in their lane. Anything else would have resulted in DeSantis looking like a bootlicker who caves to Woke Corporatism the moment his moneyed masters yank on the chain.

Disney owns (and tyrannically enforces) a lot of beloved IP, so there will always be some people who think "Disney hates DeSantis, so I hate DeSantis." But politically speaking, "there are consequences to getting politically involved" was exactly the right message to send to businesses in this case. As they say--if you're going to take a shot at the king, don't miss. Disney sticking its corporate neck out to object to a bill forbidding schools from exposing young children to sexually explicit pedagogy was a horrible, horrible choice. They missed their shot, and DeSantis had exactly the correct response: punish defectors.

My problem is that it still hasn't been demonstrated to me that the action abolishing Disney's local control benefits the taxpayers of Florida, rather than harming both Disney and Florida. Lose-lose governance by deterrence does not appeal to me. Sanctity of contract is also highly important to me, but I'm not sure that carries broadly beyond business-Rs. I'm open to evidence that it's good, but I haven't seen it.

But Disney came out swinging against DeSantis. It wasn't his "goofy-ass...fight," it was Disney's goofy-ass fight. DeSantis' only real choice there was to remind them that they are a corporation and tell them to get back in their lane. Anything else would have resulted in DeSantis looking like a bootlicker who caves to Woke Corporatism the moment his moneyed masters yank on the chain.

I think you're ignoring the "ignore it" option. DeSantis could have just said "You stick to cartoons, I'll run the state" and decried Disney's intrusion into politics, without wading into the muck with them. If you're wealthy, you probably own shares in many "woke corporations" and you don't want to get punished for what management does.

Where is the “breaking of a contract” angle?

Guessing something about changing self governance but Disney is a political entity in this case and insubordination by a political appointee is grounds for firing.

I want to note that I'm against things like RCID before they happen, I've opposed them locally and will continue to. But breaking the deal after it happens is another thing entirely. A bargain was made, if the government won't stand behind it then investment can't be done on solid ground.

The basics of these kind of deals are that a corporation lobbies the state for special treatment, which will enable the corporation to invest serious money in the community in a profitable way. Disney held up their end of the bargain, modern Orlando exists because of Disney world. Disney brings in billions in tourist dollars every year, habituates the entire East coast to vacationing in Florida, it's the crown jewel of Florida's tourist industry. And it's immovable, Disney cannot remove its investment at this stage.

I can't really parse the "Disney is a political appointee" thing. Is your theory that one loses the right to speak after accepting economic benefits from the government, else those deals may be revoked? That would vastly impact property developers across the country. And also make RCID type deals even more dystopian, with governments blatantly handing out favors to those who will back them and revoking them if they don't stick by the government line. That is not a box we want to open.

I'm not opposed to things like RCIDs as a general principle and support some actual ones; government can create significant benefits by setting them up. But if you think they are on net bad, isn't it good when a government creates substantial uncertainty for future ones and makes them much less enticing? There will now be fewer of them than there otherwise would have been.

But if you think they are on net bad, isn't it good when a government creates substantial uncertainty for future ones and makes them much less enticing?

Loyalty and paying one's debts are higher on my list of virtues than the principle that the government should not interfere in private markets. I'd place it higher than almost all other virtues. One stands by a deal, even a bad deal, even one in which one was tricked. Jacob served Laban, even though he was tricked into marrying the wrong daughter to double his time; Yudhishthira and the rest of the Pandavas stay in exile for 12 years despite the dice game being crooked. From Plutarch, quoting others:

And truly Antigonus, it would seem, was not solitary in saying, he loved betrayers, but hated those who had betrayed; nor Caesar, who told Rhymitalces the Thracian, that he loved the treason, but hated the traitor; but it is the general feeling of all who have occasion for wicked men's service, as people have for the poison of venomous beasts; they are glad of them while they are of use, and abhor their baseness when it is over. And so then did Tatius behave towards Tarpeia, for he commanded the Sabines, in regard to their contract, not to refuse her the least part of what they wore on their left arms; and he himself first took his bracelet of his arm, and threw that, together with his buckler, at her; and all the rest following, she, being borne down and quite buried with the multitude of gold and their shields, died under the weight and pressure of them;

The fact that I dislike RCID type deals doesn't excuse a government failing to stand by its predecessors statements. A government that doesn't stand by its deals makes business impossible, you can be most of the way through a huge project only to be told your approvals are revoked. The worst recent example being how the Keystone XL pipeline was jerked around for years by multiple administrations.

The fact that I dislike RCID type deals doesn't excuse a government failing to stand by its predecessors statements. A government that doesn't stand by its deals makes business impossible, you can be most of the way through a huge project only to be told your approvals are revoked.

"This pipeline, created under these conditions, is environmentally safe" is a factual determination. It is or it isn't. Of course, governments routinely fudge this and make "factual" decisions that are really political. But just because the government does that, I wouldn't give the government the same slack that I'd give them on decisions that are supposed to be political in the first place.

So I see no contradiction in saying that it's okay to take back deals like Disney's (if process is followed), yet it's not okay to take back a pipeline approval. The pipeline approval wasn't political, it's a factual thing that doesn't change. If you made it political anyway, well, tough luck, you weren't supposed to, so you don't get the benefit of being political.

A special economic district is created under equally factual determinations: that bending these laws will produce more benefit (in investment and jobs and economic development) than it will cost in bent laws. Its no different from a zoning approval, or an environmental approval, just bigger and moreso. It's no more political than the Keystone XL decision.

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