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Notes -
When vaccinating your kid (a US citizen) what vaccination schedule should you go with?
The standard US one
The standard of a different country which you think is better run (I picked Denmark)
Something else
I had a discussion with Grok 3 about this, and it seemed like it wanted to defend the US schedule (35 shots) until I pressed it about the Danish schedule (11 shots). Then it claimed that US schedule is necessary in the US because of different socioeconomic conditions. It seems like the US recommendations are based on helping the underclasses. For example, Hep B. My wife doesn't have Hep B. My kid won't get Hep B as a child. But a kid whose mom is a prostitute very much needs to be vaccinated for Hep B at birth.
In any case, after the censorship and disinformation promulgated by the US health agencies during the pandemic, I don't trust them. And clearly there is a corrupting profit motive here too. In this corrupted epistemic environment we simply don't know what the effects of giving kids 35 vaccine shots (plus annual flu and Covid shots) will be. I make no strong claims about vaccine injuries, and I think most vaccines are net positive. But I think, for my child, the Danish schedule + chicken pox is sufficient. At a minimum, I am deadset against any Covid vaccines. Can't say I look forward to arguing with nurses about this.
I’m also going to ask you to reconsider.
I realize I may have little credibility with you. Maybe this comes across like those cave diver signs. But I seriously think there’s nothing on this hill worth dying for. You’re accepting a mild risk for literally zero benefit.
The main differences between our and Denmark’s schedules appear to be COVID, Hep A and B, rotavirus, and varicella. I could make cases for most of those. Rotavirus is vaccinated in most countries; I don’t know why Denmark declined. Varicella has lower uptake, either because of cost or because it’s risky when only children are covered. On the other hand, I had it as a small child. It sucked, I still have a couple minor scars, and I get to be at risk for shingles in the future.
We’ve given ~84% of children immunity to Hep B worldwide. Between that and Universal Precautions, your child will probably be fine without such immunity. Though it’ll still be wise if he or she goes into medicine, works with the less fortunate, or wants to visit Africa or Southeast Asia. And it’s generally better to be prepared.
These vaccines aren’t novel. Everything except the COVID shots has been on our schedule since 2001. We have had decades to learn about potential side effects. We’ve also had significant political shifts. Assuming that it’s all fake and gay because of the Current Thing is a mistake. Assuming such because of a chatbot’s medical opinions is worse.
Skip the COVID shots if you want, especially if you don’t have any old or obese relatives watching the kids. But please stick with the rest of the standard schedule.
Excellent comment. One thing I'd like to add is that opting out of vaccination is, to an extent, mooching off the commons.
Herd immunity doesn't work, if parents look at the existing vaccination rates, reasons that their kids will be fine without vaccination as "everyone else" does it, and thus defects.
Agree. And I'm willing to vaccinate myself for purely pro-social reasons with no benefit to myself, provided they are safe and effective.
That said... don't you think this reasoning makes it more likely that people are lying about vaccines risks? For example, let's say you had data that suggested vaccines are 1) good for society but 2) bad for individuals, you might lie for the greater good.
This isn't something I've given much thought before, but even on reflection, I don't think it makes much difference.
The most controversial vaccine is that for Covid. Even then, my impression (memory fades) is that the vaccines were lauded as being more effective than they turned out to be. I don't recall seeing evidence back then, that people were lying out of their teeth, they interpreted unclear, insufficient or ambiguous evidence as proof that vaccines would cut the pandemic short. They didn't, they reduced mortality, but not the spread of Covid.
I can't think of any other vaccine that was remotely as controversial, and my presumption is that the FDA and medical associations, normally do a decent cost-benefit analysis before advocating them. I know NICE does, in the UK.
The vaccines were lauded as being more effective than they had already turned out to be. Pfizer's efficacy was something like 93% in the initial study, and e.g. Biden oversimplified that as badly as "You’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations."
They also turned out to be less effective than thought, with that 93% dropping to like 68% after only 6 months, which was enough to take us from "well some vaccinated people still get it but as long as we can push R<1 we can..." to "screw it, it's endemic now", even before Omicron changed the math further.
I'm not sure if this is "people were lying out of their teeth" rather than "voters aren't smart enough to avoid black-and-white thinking so they don't insist their president be smart enough either", but I think the takeaway is that you can probably trust independently repeated and reviewed studies of vaccine effects and you probably can't trust most popular interpretations of those studies.
Thank you.
That seems like an eminently sensible take, though I can only reiterate that COVID was uniquely politicized, and by the time the typical vaccine reaches market (let alone when it becomes part of a national schedule), the evidence is very strong.
Flu vaccines? Even people wanting you to take them usually stick to a pitch like "it doesn't work every year, but... can't hurt, can it?" IME. (possibly moving on to "you wouldn't want to kill grandma, would you?")
Flu vaccine? Well, if you want to single it out, then I'd be obliged to say that unless you're sickly, old, or work in healthcare, the benefits are largely a wash when compared to the minimal risk the typical annual flu strain otherwise presents. That would be the case even if the vaccine was perfectly safe. I'm on record saying the same thing, if someone wants to dig years deep into my profile.
If someone doesn't want to get it, no biggie. Hell, even I've missed shots that were offered to me for free because I didn't think it mattered enough.
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