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Notes -
When vaccinating your kid (a US citizen) what vaccination schedule should you go with?
The standard US one
The standard of a different country which you think is better run (I picked Denmark)
Something else
I had a discussion with Grok 3 about this, and it seemed like it wanted to defend the US schedule (35 shots) until I pressed it about the Danish schedule (11 shots). Then it claimed that US schedule is necessary in the US because of different socioeconomic conditions. It seems like the US recommendations are based on helping the underclasses. For example, Hep B. My wife doesn't have Hep B. My kid won't get Hep B as a child. But a kid whose mom is a prostitute very much needs to be vaccinated for Hep B at birth.
In any case, after the censorship and disinformation promulgated by the US health agencies during the pandemic, I don't trust them. And clearly there is a corrupting profit motive here too. In this corrupted epistemic environment we simply don't know what the effects of giving kids 35 vaccine shots (plus annual flu and Covid shots) will be. I make no strong claims about vaccine injuries, and I think most vaccines are net positive. But I think, for my child, the Danish schedule + chicken pox is sufficient. At a minimum, I am deadset against any Covid vaccines. Can't say I look forward to arguing with nurses about this.
I’m also going to ask you to reconsider.
I realize I may have little credibility with you. Maybe this comes across like those cave diver signs. But I seriously think there’s nothing on this hill worth dying for. You’re accepting a mild risk for literally zero benefit.
The main differences between our and Denmark’s schedules appear to be COVID, Hep A and B, rotavirus, and varicella. I could make cases for most of those. Rotavirus is vaccinated in most countries; I don’t know why Denmark declined. Varicella has lower uptake, either because of cost or because it’s risky when only children are covered. On the other hand, I had it as a small child. It sucked, I still have a couple minor scars, and I get to be at risk for shingles in the future.
We’ve given ~84% of children immunity to Hep B worldwide. Between that and Universal Precautions, your child will probably be fine without such immunity. Though it’ll still be wise if he or she goes into medicine, works with the less fortunate, or wants to visit Africa or Southeast Asia. And it’s generally better to be prepared.
These vaccines aren’t novel. Everything except the COVID shots has been on our schedule since 2001. We have had decades to learn about potential side effects. We’ve also had significant political shifts. Assuming that it’s all fake and gay because of the Current Thing is a mistake. Assuming such because of a chatbot’s medical opinions is worse.
Skip the COVID shots if you want, especially if you don’t have any old or obese relatives watching the kids. But please stick with the rest of the standard schedule.
Once again, I ask people to actually read my post instead of assuming vaccine hostility. Grok 3 was incredibly PRO vaccine. In fact, it made better pro-vaccine arguments than this forum. But that's why I'm posting here, because I don't trust chatbots.
I don't assume that at all. But I do believe, with low confidence, that vaccine risk is higher than the official numbers. Still, I'm not going to self own just because the CDC was wrong about Covid.
This is probably where we differ. I don't think vaccine risk is zero. Especially the cumulative effect of taking 35 shots (containing many more dosages).
Whoops. The original version of that sentence was
I understand that you’re suspicious that Grok fell back on PR-speak. I’d suggest that AI is unusually likely to give PR-speak even when there are compelling underlying reasons.
Right, but if you’re scaling based off the COVID vaccine risk, I think you’re going to get an overestimate. At the same time, you’re definitely rounding the benefits down because you don’t see how your kid might be exposed. So I guess I’m arguing both ends. 40+ years of clinical data across a lot of the planet means the Hep B shots are safer than most medicine. But it’s not eradicated, and having the immunity gives your child more options regarding the medical profession and even foreign travel. I think a similar logic holds for the other differences from Denmark’s schedule.
For what it’s worth, my personal opinion is more about the categorical imperative. If everyone refused on free-rider grounds, the world would be a much worse place. Even if it was only your particular social stratum, you could do serious damage to our herd immunity. Vaccine risks are linear with number of people. Epidemics, though, are exponential.
I must point out that for Hep B, if you're advocating for shots on the grounds it's a good idea for a medical provider to have, then you need to keep in mind it can be given at pretty much any point in life.
You don't need it to be a med student. I don't think it's mandatory for doctors in most places, legally or otherwise. I remember when I came to the UK, I put "unknown" as my Hep B vaccination status, because I genuinely couldn't recall, and if I had it, it must have been well after my paediatric vaccinations. This wasn't flagged or followed up on, though I think it's a good idea for a medical professional to get the shot.
I assume the argument for infant Hep B vaccination is that infection during childbirth is a major transmission method; I think around 5-10% of the population in many Asian countries are carriers, most infected this way by their mothers. IIRC the liver damage cuts life expectancy by a couple years in women and by a decade or so in men, and it's incurable.
But it's also a sexually-transmitted disease (though not much of one in places where we're all vaccinated) for whatever stigma that holds, and it's a disease that can be asymptomatic, so I guess the thinking is that it's better to have 100% of babies vaccinated immediately (the vaccine response can "outrun" the disease!) than to rely on 100% of mothers to know and admit if they're carriers.
Additionally vaccine authorities will also try and bundle vaccines because it's easier for everyone to get them all done while people are thinking about it instead of catching up later when it becomes more of a risk factor.
Their may also be an immunologic argument but I'm not an expert on that.
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