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Notes -
Last week, in the context of the Ukraine war, we talked about conscription.
We also talked about the possibility of European countries like France or the UK sending "boots on the ground and planes in the air", to Ukraine to help secure a peace deal.
And finally, as usual, we talked about migration and demographics in Europe.
Here's an interesting tweet at the intersection of all three of these topics:
I have to agree. And I never thought about the issue that way. Since the Napoleonic era, European countries have relied on nationalism to mobilize huge armies. Even if the state was totalitarian, as in Russia, there was still national identity to motivate the troops.
A two tier society, as currently practiced in much of Europe, is fundamentally hostile to the young white men living inside it. Society may be able to tolerate injustice in taxes, housing, and criminal law, but will they tolerate their sons being sent to die on a godforsaken battlefield in the Ukraine, while migrants continue to loiter on street corners and shopping centers? I think this is a bridge too far, even for Europe.
The army of the UK has about 70,000 trained members and 30,000 reservists. Of these, it's questionable how many could be deployed. 30,000 maybe? This is a pretty small number in the context of the Ukraine war, less than 10% of the Ukrainian or Russian forces.
Honestly, I don't think it will ever come to conscription, for the simple reason that it can't. The state would lose all legitimacy. But, for British citizens, I think it's fair to ask. Under what circumstances would you risk your life for your country? Would you die to defend this UK like your great-grandfathers died to defend the UK of the early 20th century?
They could get people to volunteer by paying them. You ever think of that?
Radical idea but I don’t think they could pay enough. How much per year would you require to fight as a mercenary in Ukraine?
Paying 200,000 guys 200,000 a year would cost 40 billion. Europe could easily afford that.
It’s funny, I came up with that exact number estimate in my head just before I saw that comment. But yes, I fully agree.
There are more than enough 19 year old kids in Europe with nothing to lose who spend their days in the gym and scrolling who would 100% take €200k to go to war.
Hell, it might work. Who knows.
I feel like I heard about a proposal that the US military radical reduce force size, essentially becoming a force of all-elite soldiers who are highly trained and highly paid. Just get rid of everything except the tip of the spear, and if shit ever hit the fan, they could rapidly train civilians like what happened in World War II. I think it's a good proposal, and I'd have no problem paying Army Rangers and Navy SEALS $200k a year.
The 19 year old British TikTok enthusiast however is decidedly not that. And would probably be worthless as a soldier, at least at until they're blooded. If they're doing it for the money, do the still get paid if they have a stomach bug and missed the big battle?
But who knows, maybe in ten years we won't need soldiers anyway, and China will just swarm the skies over any city they want with 10 billion drones who can hunt and kill anyone they want to.
Where do you think navy seals come from? They’re ordinary enlisted sailors who pass seal training.
More to the point, military logistics demands skilled labor in quantities and deployability that the civilian world doesn’t. There’s dozens, maybe hundreds, of individual highly technical niche fields where you learn by joining the army/navy, which handles the(lengthy) training pipeline, and then finding a civilian job once you’re out. There is no civilian pipeline to produce these necessary-for-the-military jobs, and they’re not exactly quick to train. You have them in your peacetime army or you don’t have them.
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