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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 3, 2025

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Peter Navarro, Trump's senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, was just on Fox News discussing the tariffs on imported Canadian goods. The headline I've linked highlights his most sensational claim: "Canada has been taken over by Mexican cartels."

Trumpism is a movement defined by outrageous statements, only some of which they are serious about and it's up to you to guess what. Does Navarro (or Trump) really believe that Canada has been taken over by Mexican cartels? Probably not, but you can't dismiss the possibility. Either way, why not say it?

In his speech to congress that same night, Trump discussed tariffs as part of a larger plan: nothing to do with fentanyl, and actually about correcting perceived economic unfairness.

Trump's messaging on tariffs has been incoherent. On the one hand, tariffs are industrial policy, meant to bring back American manufacturing. On the other hand, tariffs are a negotiating tactics, to be dropped in exchange for concessions. On the mutant third hand, tariffs are a revenue alternative - a way to replace income taxes with consumption taxes (though Trump clearly doesn't think of them that way, quite possibly because he doesn't know how tariffs work).

The problem is that at most one of these things can be true. Taking it as a given for now that tariffs-as-industrial policy is effective, you need to maintain the tariffs (so no dropping them as a concession) and you need American consumers to shift to American-made goods (so tariff revenues must decline substantially). If tariffs are a negotiating tactic, you're giving them up for whatever objective you're pursuing and therefore forgoing both industrial development and revenue. If tariffs are supposed to be a revenue stream that substitutes for income taxes, you need Americans to keep buying imports, which means not buying American-made goods at the scale you're expecting for an industrial revival driven by domestic demand.

(In reality, the only one of these that makes any measure of sense is tactical tariffs)

All of which is to say that what Canada can do to reverse the tariffs is probably lobby members of Trump's inner circle to try and change his mind. The likely (but unfortunately not overwhelmingly likely) outcome is that someone prevails upon Trump that this idea is really fucking dumb and Canada makes some symbolic concession so Trump can feel like he got a win. But, there are also quite a few people in the Trump administration who unironically think tariffing everyone is a great idea, so who knows.

Trump himself could probably be sold on the idea of a unified trade bloc going after China -- this would probably an actual Good Thing, but Canadian politics is pretty compromised on that front so we will probably only hear that Going After China is Racist or something.

Canada didn't take a stance of "attacking China is racist" over the past few years when the past few administrations have increasingly become China hawks and drew Canada into things like the Huawei fight.

Trump on the other hand has shown himself to have a disdainful attitude towards the very countries he'd presumably be creating a unified bloc with for ?? reasons that no one can agree with.

All anyone wants is greater integration with America. If anything, part of Canada's weakness here is from becoming too complacent and relying on that. It was already going to happen if the US was bringing back manufacturing. The only impediment to more of that is Trump.

the past few administrations have increasingly become China hawks

LOL

https://www.nsicop-cpsnr.ca/reports/rp-2024-06-03/special-report-foreign-interference.pdf

For the benefit of people who don't feel like reading a 90-page document in order to continue the conversation, relevant portions (that aren't censored):

  • the CPC ran an online campaign trying to get Canadians to not vote for the Conservative Party
  • the CPC tried to "make an example" of a Chinese-Canadian Conservative MP in an unspecified fashion
  • the CPC took extreme steps to get Han Dong elected, including bussing in ineligible Chinese students to vote for him in (Liberal Party) preselection on threat of their visas being cancelled
  • the CPC interfered in leadership selection of the Conservative Party
  • the Conservative Party complained that the team trying to protect the election from interference wasn't taking their concerns seriously
  • the intelligence services wanted to brief all MPs regarding foreign interference but the Trudeau government ignored them
  • the report accuses the Trudeau government of requesting that intelligence reports be withdrawn due to being too politically sensitive
  • foreign interference doesn't appear to have affected the overall outcome of the 2021 election but does seem to have had some more local impact

NB: I am strongly of the opinion that @jkf should have provided such a digest himself.

Lol and a pdf? Come on son!

It's more effort than he deserves -- "LPC is hawkish on China" isn't even low effort, it's just agitprop.

That's not my point. I said the LPC hasn't been banging the racist drum even though it's clear that basically every US administration has been getting more and more hawkish on China. Even when it demands actions that create problems for Canada.

Y'know, as we discussed all of a day ago.

it's just agitprop.

As opposed to blaming a lack of further integration on Canadian wokeness when Trump is the one taking a cleaver to his own trade deal because ?? tariffs.

Please