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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 3, 2025

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South Africa : The Ultimate Red Pill

There's been quite a lot of speculation on what Elon Musk's red pill moment was. Some have said it's that the government interfered with his space launches. Others have said its because his kid transitioned from male to female. But it's hard to write the story of Elon without considering where he grew up: South Africa.

South Africa is a cautionary tale. It's the ultimate failure of the progressive experiment.

The decline of South Africa since the end of apartheid has been as stunning as it was predictible. At one point, a small population of 3 or 4 million white South Africans was able to build a suprisingly advanced society. They performed the first human heart transplant. They had nuclear weapons!

But over time, international pressure against apartheid mounted and South Africa became a pariah state. In 1994, the apartheid government caved and allowed blacks full participation in democracy. Optimism was high. F. W. de Klerk, the last white president, even ran for another term. He got 20% of the vote.

The man who won the office with 63% of the vote, and who de Klerk would share a Nobel Peace Prize with, was Nelson Mandela. Today, Mandela is often compared to Gandhi or MLK, but that is not an accurate representation of his earlier years when he viewed himself as a guerilla in the model of Che Guevara. Fortunately for his image, he was arrested in 1962 and imprisoned until 1990, largely avoiding personal involvement in his party's genoicidal rhetoric of "Kill the Boer" and the infamous use of the South African necktie which involved placing a tire around a person and then burning them alive.

Neverthless, as President, Mandela managed to be mostly conciliatory towards whites. The Truth and Reconcilation Committee was an effort to bury the hatred of the past, and was largely viewed as succesful at the time.

But the rot had already started. Mandela's term saw the imposition of huge amounts of welfare spending and affirmative action. There was an influx of illegal immigrants from poor countries nearby, but an outflux of whites and coloreds. As a result, the percentage of whites in South Africa fell from 13% in 1995 to just 7% today.

After Mandela, things would get much worse. Thabo Mbeki, the next President, denied the link between HIV and AIDS, and the number of South Africans suffering from the disease skyrocketed to a quarter of the population. After him came Jacob Zuma, a polygamist, who would rehash the "kill the Boer" song during a 2012 rally.

Today, South Africa is in shambles. The passenger rail system, which once served 600 million annual journeys, is now essentially defunct. The electricity grid is teetering. Life expectancy and GDP per capita have been stagnant for 40 years, while nearly every other country in the world has seen staggering increases.

Worse, though, is the fate of rural white farmers who have been subject to attacks in which they are tortured for several hours and then murdered. Almost none of these attacks are prosecuted, meaning the farmers can be murdered with impunity. In fact, the government of Cyril Ramphosa, the current president, has proposed seizing white-owned farms without compensation, echoing what happened in Zimbabwe.

It was in the context of all of this, that today the Trump administration said it will grant asylum and a rapid path to citizenship for white South African farmers who flee to the United States. Furthermore, the government will cut off all aid to South Africa.

This will likely hasten South Africa's decline, and it's an acknowledgement that there is no longer anything there worth saving. South Africa is a failed African state, no different than many others. But despite everything, I'm not sure what could have been done differently. Apartheid is morally reprehensible, and at the same time it was the only way to keep South Africa from falling apart. That's all in the past now. It's time for the elves to get back on their ships and sail back to Valinor. And pity the ones that stay behind.

Why not have separate countries? My understanding is there are some (or we’re) largely white areas of SA. Why not divide SA in 1994 between the white and non-white?

You can't have separate countries for them in SA for the same reason Reds and Blues can't cleanly separate in the US- very Blue areas in the US are extremely strategically dependent on the Red areas.

That's a core part of Blue political anxiety (and female anxiety in general, for that matter)- at any moment, the Reds could just say "no, fuck you", start demolishing the power lines, shut the gas off, and ruin the water supply. By the time the Blues can raise a city militia to stop this their ability to pose a threat to the Reds will have been destroyed- cities don't produce their own food, water, or power.

Hence, apartheid- Blues need to make sure Reds are so poor and so uneducated that unless a foreign country was donating materiel strictly for ideological reasons they'd have nothing to sell. It helps if you're a resource economy because being labor and being able to direct labor are two very different skillsets (again, standard "rules for rulers" stuff- just a lot more distributed amongst the population of Blue white South Africa).

Where are the natural resources buried? Blues know, but not Reds.
How do you extract those resources? Blues know, but not Reds.
Can you trade for foreign war materiel? Blues can, but not Reds. (Hence the foreign embargo on Blues.)

The reds would probably win a civil war(at, to be clear, absolutely ruinous human cost). But the source of Blue anxiety is not a civil war scenario; it's the red political victories which they suppose will lead to an authoritarian regime because they can't pass an ideological turing test.