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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   Edited 1yr ago   4946 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for November 13, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

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Shouldn't the phrase "{low/high} {risk/reward}" also include {high/low probability} ?

Else buying lottery tickets sounds like a "low risk, high reward" good idea. Or is the risk/reward an expected value?

Modern risk theory holds that Risk = Likelihood (probability) x Consequence.

Probability is already factored into risk.

"In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening." - Wikipedia.

I don't know why I found that funny.

Ironically enough, its also the chance of good happening with a subset of risk theory called positive (opportunity) risk.

I'd define low risk high reward as synonymous colloquially with using the term Lottery ticket.

Like one might call a baseball team pursuing high upside lower level minor leaguers as "stocking up on lottery tickets."

Whether something is a good idea is kind of separate from whether it is low risk high reward. If you bring probability into it such that it must have a positive expected value, it doesn't really communicate anything beyond being a good idea.

The reward is typically an expected value, as far as I know. So the lottery is low risk, low reward because the likelihood of a payout is quite low.

Yeah brainfart on my side. Winning the lottery is low risk high reward, not buying a ticket

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