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PaperclipPerfector  18d ago (text post)   2322 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for April 11, 2025

Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.

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Kurzgesagt had last week a video about population collapse because of low fertility rate:

It has the charming title: "SOUTH KOREA IS OVER". All caps, which is not normal for kurzgesagt titles, so you know DOOM is coming.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ufmu1WD2TSk

It is a short video with 14 minutes but it explains at breakneck speed the topic succinctly and in depth. The depressing conclusion is that South Korea can't really do anything, the low fertility is an unstoppable freight train and it will hit (end) the country. Even if a wonder happens and the fertility will rise to replacement level next week, the country would still have massive problems in 30 years. And because this wonder is not happening … the country is over

I’m Korean, born and raised in this country, and after watching this video, I just sat in silence for a while. Not because it shocked me, but because it said out loud what so many of us already feel deep inside: that it’s too late. There’s no fixing this anymore.

It is barely comforting that the West (and other countries too) are heading in a similar direction. Maybe accelerationism is the solution here: The faster South Korea is imploding the sooner other countries will wake up and do something.

I just had a conversation with someone last week about this video. I wondered at the time why they were focusing on South Korea and not Japan. It does seem strange the video says it's unprecedented and only make the most passing mention that Japan is arguably ahead on the demographic curve.

From the population pyramids, seems like if you align babyboomlet generations, 2025 Korea is roughly at the same place as 2007 Japan. Perhaps the remarkable thing is Japan managed to stabilize the base of the pyramid for a few cohorts. Seems like now Korea is facing a demographic cliff while Japan is only facing a demographic decline. With 1.2% vs 1.6% of population in the most recent cohorts. Does anyone have some color on why Japans population decline slowed and Koreas did not? Is anyone more familiar with the cultures willing to confirm or deny my impression that the South Koreans seem to be more willing to embrace automation. Maybe that can help fend of declines in raw GDP for a few more years?

Any country that passes through this population bottleneck experiences immediate and intense natural selection for increased fertility, which means that those nations that started earlier (France in the case of Europe and Japan in the case of East Asia) will revert sooner to a more sustainable birthrate. There is also more variation within Japan itself than Korea, with minorities such as Okinawans bringing up the average fertility. Lastly, Japan has in recent years implemented a more liberal immigration policy, with large numbers of Vietnamese, Filipino, Chinese, Indonesian, etc. workers (or mail-order brides) moving in to maintain the integrity of the labor force and having more children than the natives.

I keep seeing this heritability of fertility argument repeated especially with respect to France but is there any real evidence for it at all?

France was demonstrably the first country in Europe to undergo the demographic transition and has a higher fertility rate today than its neighbors (I picked a source from before the recent migration wave to eliminate that confounder).

Yes I am aware of that but one country having a slightly higher rate of a single metric really doesn’t indicate an evolutionary process

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