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PaperclipPerfector  20d ago (text post)   2327 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for April 11, 2025

Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.

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Kurzgesagt had last week a video about population collapse because of low fertility rate:

It has the charming title: "SOUTH KOREA IS OVER". All caps, which is not normal for kurzgesagt titles, so you know DOOM is coming.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ufmu1WD2TSk

It is a short video with 14 minutes but it explains at breakneck speed the topic succinctly and in depth. The depressing conclusion is that South Korea can't really do anything, the low fertility is an unstoppable freight train and it will hit (end) the country. Even if a wonder happens and the fertility will rise to replacement level next week, the country would still have massive problems in 30 years. And because this wonder is not happening … the country is over

I’m Korean, born and raised in this country, and after watching this video, I just sat in silence for a while. Not because it shocked me, but because it said out loud what so many of us already feel deep inside: that it’s too late. There’s no fixing this anymore.

It is barely comforting that the West (and other countries too) are heading in a similar direction. Maybe accelerationism is the solution here: The faster South Korea is imploding the sooner other countries will wake up and do something.

So... how do you not read total literal societal collapse as an indictment of feminism?

On surveys where you ask women what their desired number of ideal children are, the number is still pretty high, higher than needed to maintain replacement-level fertility, so I think blaming feminism may not be the right answer since if you could help women have the number of children they want, declining TFR won't be a problem.

So... how do you not read total literal societal collapse as an indictment of feminism?

Is TFR reduction inherent or unique to feminism? Muslim countries are also experiencing a secular trend of decreasing TFR.

Muslim countries are also far more feminist than, say, the UK was in 1900. Women participate in the economy.

The depressing conclusion is that South Korea can't really do anything,

That's untrue. Nothing is preventing a dictator from seizing control of the country and implementing necessary measures - such as discriminating in employment against young women, curbs on female education. Once status of younger women is no longer seen as higher than that of younger men, they're far more likely to marry.

Even if a wonder happens and the fertility will rise to replacement level next week, the country would still have massive problems in 30 years.

A lot of this doom rhetoric just assumes things like democracy (olds controlling politics), welfare state (olds sucking up resources) or even high life expectancies (olds living long beyond retirement) will keep up. If even a fraction of the predicted problems hit these countries, world will change way beyond our current comprehension and most of these things likely will stop being problems in the currently predicted ways.

Unfortunately, change usually comes from violent revolt. Olds don't fight. Geriatric welfare is a democratic phenomenon.

SK is primed for revolution. Every man serves in the military. They had a (failed) emergency and subsequent (successful) impeachment last year. The leader before that was ejected in a anti-govt protests. So far, jobless men giving into a 'laying flat' depression rather than violent retaliation. Not sure how long that will last.

South Korea is a fascinating nation. A first world nation where everyone seems miserable. Strong contrast with India, where people live in literal filth, yet seem happy and content. What's the main source of this deep nihilism ?

Strong contrast with India, where people live in literal filth, yet seem happy and content.

Aren't like 60%+ of Indians desirous to emigrate out of their literal filth ?

Yes, but that's because they believe they can have their cake (their Indianess, communities ties) and eat it too (be in a clean & wealthy place).

I don't see why they can't. Nothing about the things valued in Indian culture and community ties is opposed to being in a clean and wealthy place.

Cleanness requires sacrifice.

Essentially, because being clean and wealthy requires a sort of compulsive perfectionism and if Indians generally had that then India would be different.

By contrast, look at Japan. They have a level of perfectionism and conformism that doesn’t necessarily make them happy, but Japan relies on its citizens having those qualities to run.

More comments

A lot of me thinks this is just reverse 'population bomb'-ism. I'd like to compare the certainty of those worried about underpopulation today with the opposite in the 70s. AI and robots are going to overturn so much, I don't think these negative bombs are particularly predictable for much.

For starters, with AI and robots people owning capital are not going to need labour, at all, to carry out the economic activities they require to live in style.

Asimov wrote about this, didn't he ?

Solaria. 3000 solarian people (who become physically ill in each other’s presence) and millions or billions of robots.

I just had a conversation with someone last week about this video. I wondered at the time why they were focusing on South Korea and not Japan. It does seem strange the video says it's unprecedented and only make the most passing mention that Japan is arguably ahead on the demographic curve.

From the population pyramids, seems like if you align babyboomlet generations, 2025 Korea is roughly at the same place as 2007 Japan. Perhaps the remarkable thing is Japan managed to stabilize the base of the pyramid for a few cohorts. Seems like now Korea is facing a demographic cliff while Japan is only facing a demographic decline. With 1.2% vs 1.6% of population in the most recent cohorts. Does anyone have some color on why Japans population decline slowed and Koreas did not? Is anyone more familiar with the cultures willing to confirm or deny my impression that the South Koreans seem to be more willing to embrace automation. Maybe that can help fend of declines in raw GDP for a few more years?

Any country that passes through this population bottleneck experiences immediate and intense natural selection for increased fertility, which means that those nations that started earlier (France in the case of Europe and Japan in the case of East Asia) will revert sooner to a more sustainable birthrate. There is also more variation within Japan itself than Korea, with minorities such as Okinawans bringing up the average fertility. Lastly, Japan has in recent years implemented a more liberal immigration policy, with large numbers of Vietnamese, Filipino, Chinese, Indonesian, etc. workers (or mail-order brides) moving in to maintain the integrity of the labor force and having more children than the natives.

I keep seeing this heritability of fertility argument repeated especially with respect to France but is there any real evidence for it at all?

France was demonstrably the first country in Europe to undergo the demographic transition and has a higher fertility rate today than its neighbors (I picked a source from before the recent migration wave to eliminate that confounder).

Yes I am aware of that but one country having a slightly higher rate of a single metric really doesn’t indicate an evolutionary process

What part of this fertility is white people? Which are the only relevant for me.

Most of it.

Does anyone have some color on why Japans population decline slowed and Koreas did not?

Japan is a larger nation, with more economic opportunity, and it industrialized at a time when industrialization wasn't quite so automated- the percentage of the population that process enriched was larger.

South Korea is small, has one major city, and it industrialized at a time when automation was already a relatively solved problem- the percentage of the population that process enriched was smaller.

Both nations, as well as all Western ones (importantly, the US is the least affected), are overpopulated to varying degrees relative to their level of economic opportunity- that's why TFR is below 2 there. It's not "the young aren't doing their duty", it's that the positions that the young would grow into no longer exist and their very existence has been, for a variety of reasons, simply priced out of the market (you can also see this effect in gender relations, where women instinctively expect men to make more than them- which means that the carrying capacity of society is not equal, and furthermore that men are in surplus).

When populations shrink, capital pays more for labor- that's why, historically, massive economic booms occur after significant die-offs. What you're seeing is a slower, gentler version of that process.

The North Koreans are not capable of winning a war on South Korea and still remaining North Korea through domestic production alone- if they had enough domestic production to sustain a war they would have industrialized to the point the socioeconomic forces that hold the country together would be destroyed- too many people getting rich for the Kim regime to be able to delete.

China could do it, of course- just dump more materiel onto the NK army than they're able to carry- but then, apart from no longer being a base from which the United States could attack the Chinese mainland, what grand benefit would they get from reducing the country to rubble? Certainly not a trading partner, that's for sure, since NK has no industry and their people are poorer than China's own in the first place. It's not like Ukraine where the Russians can somewhat credibly claim they're making the territory safe for ethnic Russians; Koreans aren't Han Chinese and the two hate each other on that basis alone.

It's not "the young aren't doing their duty", it's that the positions that the young would grow into no longer exist and their very existence has been, for a variety of reasons, simply priced out of the market

If so, why there are large immigration streams and even many goverments subsidizing that immigration?

Is anyone more familiar with the cultures willing to confirm or deny my impression that the South Koreans seem to be more willing to embrace automation. Maybe that can help fend of declines in raw GDP for a few more years?

Ah yes, clearly the Korean culture will flourish with the 10 surviving Koreans atop an automated empire as opposed to millions of Koreans experiencing all the richness of the human condition in relative poverty. After all, the first question St Peter asks you is "What was your GDP?"

I guess one advantage that ROK has over Japan is the small chance of reabsorbing the DPRK. In a sort of German reunification absorption of the GDR into the FRG. This is all conditional on them managing to avoid total economic and social collapse for a few decades though.

Even if there are only 10 South Koreans left, maybe they can send the 20 million North Koreans to reeducation camps consisting of archival K-drama and K-pop to reincarnate the culture.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure if NK and SK ever unify, it won't be on SK's political or cultural terms.

After all, the first question St Peter asks you is "What was your GDP?"

Milton Friedman outcompeted St Peter in efficiency, by leveraging capitalist incentives, now like entering New Vegas you need to have proof of wealth. Turns out you CAN take it with you.

Is this Friday Fun?

No. It isn't. I think for some reason people hesitate to make standalone threads on the Motte. I honestly don't know why.

Learned behavior from the Reddit days when it was actively discouraged to not draw the ire of the site admins

If it's not culture war there's little chance I share many interests with you good people. There were incredibly lengthy threads about golfing, gunpowder packing, and trips to China. I'm sure if I liked reading as much as you fine folks maybe it would be worth checking out.

The fertility cliff is interesting to me, but I also think it qualifies as culture war.

I tend to go for low effort shitposting, which is forbidden for top level posts/standalone threads. I may not be a high quality poster but I follow the rules. o:)

Good chance nobody looks at it. Or at least higher bar for getting attention.

The mods are a lot harder on top-level posts than they are on replies. I get the impression that this is a considered policy on their part, but it does have side-effects

Kurzgesagt videos are fun, not sure about this specific one though.

If you hate Koreans, I suppose.

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