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As I'm sure many of you are already aware, it's been another insane 48 hours in Ukraine. The "side offensive" in the northeast that accompanied the "main offensive" in Kherson has made astonishing progress, with Ukrainian forces pushing all the way to the Oskil River, with Kupyansk under attack and Izyum and Lyman both threatened. None of this will mean much to most us, I realise, so here's a quick (already outdated) map of the progress.
It's important not to get carried away here; while this is the closest we've come to a true war of movement since April, and there are reports of desertions and surrenders by Russian forces, we're dealing with one front in a war with at least three more (roughly, in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk sectors). This will probably not trigger a general collapse of Russian forces. Moreover, it is still possible that Ukrainian forces will find themselves overextended and vulnerable to counterattacks. However, as matters stand, this looks like a decisive operational-level victory for Ukraine.
My main uncertainty in what follows is what Russia's response to this apparent defeat will be, given that the underlying tides seem to favour Ukraine. Mass mobilisation may have helped a few months back, but - in addition to its political difficulties - it's unclear whether this late into the war it will be sufficient to turn the tide. Obviously there's always the option of nuclear escalation, but this would be a colossal gamble for Russia, potentially leaving them diplomatically isolated while providing limited relief on the battlefield. Another possibility would be for Russia explicitly to use the Zaporizhzhia plant as a hostage, but again it's unclear how that would translate into gains on the battlefield. And all the while, Russia's gas blackmail strategy seems to be floundering; not only have European reserves filled at faster than expected rates, European gas futures continued to fall, suggesting optimism about long-term supply issues.
Clearly, the best solution for Russia is the removal of Putin. His successor might still be able to cut a deal with the West that allows them de facto control of Crimea (for example, via a Hong Kong-style lease agreement, accompanied by a clever financial 'reparations package' that involves minimal pain on all sides). That will not begin to ameliorate the damage this idiotic war has caused to Russia and Ukraine, but at this point it is the least bad option. The only question now is how Russia can best ensure a relatively fast recovery from the self-inflicted harm it has created.
What does a Russian nuclear escalation look like?
Unclear. Tactical nuclear weapons aren't necessarily all that useful on the battlefield. People think of nukes as "destroy everything bombs", but if we're talking about an armoured division spread out across a few square miles, then a small nuke is hardly a game changer (and ironically, a lot of the ex-Soviet hardware Ukraine is packing is precisely designed to allow crew survivability in the wake of a nuclear strike). A nuclear missile on Kiev, Lviv, or Odessa might be effective, but would instantly mark Russia as a pariah state - the breaking of the nuclear taboo (and the consequent breakdown of non-proliferation) is in no way in the interests of their few remaining global friends like China or India.
The least bad nuclear escalation from Moscow, I think, would be a nuclear test (following appropriate legal measures to excuse Russia from its test-ban commitments). This would incur relatively few diplomatic costs, and would immediately raise the stakes for all concerned. That said, it wouldn't change the situation on the battlefield at all. At best, it might prompt a fresh round of negotiations with Erdogan et al. as intermediaries.
if russia starts reaching for its nuclear gun, it probably ought to shoot. Gesturing in that direction is gonna solidify opinion against russia in a way i don't think i've ever seen in my life, aid$$$ will flow like coors light at a nascar tailgate from around the globe. Fucking joint action committees with every swinging johnson except for russia would be happening. The nuclear card is the end of russia, and russia likely knows not to use it unless the end is nigh.
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