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As I'm sure many of you are already aware, it's been another insane 48 hours in Ukraine. The "side offensive" in the northeast that accompanied the "main offensive" in Kherson has made astonishing progress, with Ukrainian forces pushing all the way to the Oskil River, with Kupyansk under attack and Izyum and Lyman both threatened. None of this will mean much to most us, I realise, so here's a quick (already outdated) map of the progress.
It's important not to get carried away here; while this is the closest we've come to a true war of movement since April, and there are reports of desertions and surrenders by Russian forces, we're dealing with one front in a war with at least three more (roughly, in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk sectors). This will probably not trigger a general collapse of Russian forces. Moreover, it is still possible that Ukrainian forces will find themselves overextended and vulnerable to counterattacks. However, as matters stand, this looks like a decisive operational-level victory for Ukraine.
My main uncertainty in what follows is what Russia's response to this apparent defeat will be, given that the underlying tides seem to favour Ukraine. Mass mobilisation may have helped a few months back, but - in addition to its political difficulties - it's unclear whether this late into the war it will be sufficient to turn the tide. Obviously there's always the option of nuclear escalation, but this would be a colossal gamble for Russia, potentially leaving them diplomatically isolated while providing limited relief on the battlefield. Another possibility would be for Russia explicitly to use the Zaporizhzhia plant as a hostage, but again it's unclear how that would translate into gains on the battlefield. And all the while, Russia's gas blackmail strategy seems to be floundering; not only have European reserves filled at faster than expected rates, European gas futures continued to fall, suggesting optimism about long-term supply issues.
Clearly, the best solution for Russia is the removal of Putin. His successor might still be able to cut a deal with the West that allows them de facto control of Crimea (for example, via a Hong Kong-style lease agreement, accompanied by a clever financial 'reparations package' that involves minimal pain on all sides). That will not begin to ameliorate the damage this idiotic war has caused to Russia and Ukraine, but at this point it is the least bad option. The only question now is how Russia can best ensure a relatively fast recovery from the self-inflicted harm it has created.
There was a breakthrough in Balakliya, although Russian contigents continue fighting within the city.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=n7AlWYKc4Qs
To my understanding this represents an escalation of the war, wherein NATO forces commanded by Nato leadership are directly involved in a major offensive for the first time.
Will be interesting to see how Russia responds.
I do think we are in danger of overestimating the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Yes they have had initial success, but so did the Germans at the Bastogne. I think by the end of the week it will be more clear.
EDIT:
It appears Russian forces withdrew from Kupyansk late last night.
Bastogne was a disaster for the Germans because not only did their offensive fail, but the western allies had mobile armies able to exploit the defeat to advance. The Ukrainian offensive in the north has succeeded as well as it has precisely because the Russians lacked reserves to contest with a counter-offensive, while in the South the issue is that the Russian ability to advance across the river was limited by bridges in Ukrainian artillery range. If the Ukrainians over-extend in the north, they stop advancing and keep considerable gains. If the Ukrainians overextend to the south, they... still have the bridgeheads in artillery range.
What, exactly, do you think the worst case of over-extension is supposed to be?
A loss in manpower, equipment, and morale.
Yes? And? What else? That's not exactly a worst-case scenario you're describing.
Manpower and equipment are already being lost even in a successful advance- either the categorical loss of something is bad enough to matter, or you need relevant context of what sort of losses are unacceptable. You could make an argument about moral, but you're not comparing it to anything else. Is this supposed to be lower than if there were no over-extended offensive in the first place? What difference is this supposed to make that warrants a comparison to the Germans at Bastogne?
If morale is the only categorical negative , we can just point at Ukrainian propaganda, say it raises morale, and call it net even.
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