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Culture War Roundup for the week of June 9, 2025

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Breaking news: Trump is saying he will not be deporting illegal immigrants who work on Farms and in Hotels.

Gavin Newsom is claiming it for a win for the violent riots that have taken over LA and other major cities.

This is a bit of a let down for Trump Supporters and anyone who wants to take America back from those who were not invited. Especially with Gavin Newsom rubbing it in the public's face. Especially with American Approval of deportation efforts have been increasing.

Trump's rationale appears to be:

  1. Hotels/farms are low hanging fruit, it's easy to pick up illegal immigrants from these locations.

  2. After swooping these groups first, then the only applicants to these positions (at the wages the farms and hotels are willing to pay) are the criminal illegal immigrants.

  3. So focus on criminality first.

Does this mean that, once every last criminal is deported, he will then do sweeps of farms and hotels? Left ambiguous.

One problem is the effect of exploitable labor goes in one way. Over the past 2 decades, Landscaping businesses that employed high school students and ex cons went out of business because they couldn't compete against undocumented workers.

If one farm gets raided, and one farm growing similar things does not get raided for another year, then the first farm needs to hire more expensive people and raise prices while the second farm will still benefit from the lowered wages. The farm that got raided first goes out of business first, the second farm maybe gets to buy up the first farm, then when they are inevitably raided they still stay in business and make more money now.

It's not fair. It's not fair that the government has not enforced its own rules surrounding hiring employees uniformly across industries.

The fair thing would be to deport 100% of everyone deportable all at once. The shock of that will be destructive to every industry that is predominately illegal immigrants.

The next fair thing might be to deport 10% of employees in every business all together, then another 10% later, and so on until the bottom is reached.

Of course, the above two "fair" plans are ridiculous. We do not have the man-power to do it.

Any other fair ideas? Besides Trump's new plan of "Don't try to tackle this right now."

Farms are one of those things where you just can't get Americans to do it. You can pay well-above market rate, they won't do it. You can hire out of the parole office, they'll still quit knowing they stand a good chance of going to jail for it.

Like duh, Trump was never going to crack down on fruitpickers and no one really wanted him to.

I don't actually believe this but it definitely seems possible that the markets clear at prices that would be noticeably bad for the consumer.

When Georgia the state had a program to replace migrant farm workers with parolees, the produce rotted in the fields. Parolees almost by definition are more used to crappy, unpleasant conditions than the general public(they had after all just been in prison) and they stand a good chance of being imprisoned if they don't hold down a job- meatpacking plants, low level manufacturing, other big employers in shitty jobs love them for that reason.

Getting first worlders to do heavy agricultural labour is clearly an extremely difficult problem which has not yet been solved. In an ideal world we'd fly people in from the Nigeria, India, etc and fly them back with a fat stack of cash from US wages, but the US won't do that. Non-forced labour from the first world is not a viable replacement for migrant farmworkers.

In an ideal world we'd fly people in from the Nigeria, India, etc and fly them back with a fat stack of cash from US wages, but the US won't do that.

Why is that better than the traditional solution of using Mexicans?

Because the Mexicans, even if deported, can simply walk back.

The difference in prevailing lower blue collar wages between the parts of Mexico and Honduras which still have subsistence agriculture and even the poorest parts of the U.S. are vast, even if purchasing power in rural Mississippi and Monterrey or the DF is closer than you might think. And people who are willing to pick strawberries for a living are also willing to walk thousands of miles. There will always be someone willing to pay cash under the table for a slight discount to clean toilets or do temporary construction work or whatever at a daily rate greater than the typical unskilled laborer weekly salary in Guatemala or Chiapas. There will always be someone willing to rent out a spare bedroom for a week’s day laborer pay, in cash. I have heard illegal immigrants speak about this- o, so and so went home to Oaxaca, when he runs out of money he’ll walk back, and this time he’ll learn his lesson and stay. I kept his number in case there’s a big job after he comes back. And even with the difference in costs, those Oaxaca laborers are eating rice and beans and wearing rags at home, and hamburgers with jeans in good repair here.

In contrast Nigerians have little choice but to wait in line to do it legally if they want US wages again.

Because the Mexicans, even if deported, can simply walk back.

Why would they be deported? If there's work, we can hand them a temporary visa and they work. If there isn't, no visa. And if they want to work at things not covered by these visas, they can walk in illegally regardless of whether these visas exist.