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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   2411 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for June 15, 2025

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Do you think that Israel bit more than they chew with the Iran situation? I doubt they have the logistics for sustained campaign and it is far from sure that they will be able to destabilize the regime or plunge it in a civil war enough for the time that they have.

The goal is not to overthrow the regime (though it'd be nice) but to set back the nuclear program (and ballistic missile capabilities while we're at it) significantly. Israel is well on its way to achieve that. Whether or not that would eventually lead to the regime collapse it's up to Iranians.

Israel is well on its way to achieve that

Without snark - is it? As in - is it easier for Iran to rebuild, than Israel to replenish it's offensive capabilities? So far in the face of Iran Israel has been faced with the greatest gift of them all - stupid adversary. But you can't expect this gift to keep on giving forever.

My humble armchair prediction is that we will be unpleasantly surprised at how fast Iran will get it's footing back if the regime survives.

As in - is it easier for Iran to rebuild, than Israel to replenish it's offensive capabilities?

No, it's not. Making a bomb is easier than making an uranium enrichment factory. Most expensive stuff on Israel's side is capital investment (like planes) which is not consumable, and consumables are relatively cheap. Certainly not free and at some point you could only make so many bombs, but you can build new bombs faster than you can build high-tech factories.

But you can't expect this gift to keep on giving forever.

If they stop being stupid, by virtue of that they'd also stop trying to invest so much money in destroying a tiny country which would gladly forget they exist if only they'd let them. Iran literally gains absolutely nothing from messing with Israel except stupidity points. It's literally the stupidest fight ever for them - they have no territorial dispute, they can gain no resources, they can not make more money or destroy a competitor - nothing. If they were smart, they'd do what Qatar or Saudis do - say "fuck them nukes", make peace with the Jews, buy American fighter planes and use the oil money to bribe half of the world into submission. They may throw a bone to the islamic terrorists to go fight Jews from time to time, just for the old times sake, but they wouldn't get into an open fight that gains them nothing. Israelis are not too proud, they know how diplomacy works in the Middle East - you can yell "death to the Jews" all day long, but if you don't do much to back it up, it'd be fine. But Iran government are stupid and blinded by their ideology, so they are.

If they stop being stupid, by virtue of that they'd also stop trying to invest so much money in destroying a tiny country which would gladly forget they exist if only they'd let them

Smart and rational are different beasts.

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