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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   2411 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for June 15, 2025

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Do you think that Israel bit more than they chew with the Iran situation? I doubt they have the logistics for sustained campaign and it is far from sure that they will be able to destabilize the regime or plunge it in a civil war enough for the time that they have.

The goal is not to overthrow the regime (though it'd be nice) but to set back the nuclear program (and ballistic missile capabilities while we're at it) significantly. Israel is well on its way to achieve that. Whether or not that would eventually lead to the regime collapse it's up to Iranians.

What damage did Israel exactly inflict on Iranian nuclear capabilities so far? All I have seen is a couple dead scientists and some bombed non-critical infrastructure near the nuclear facilities. I have a hard time believing Israel’s opening attack wasn’t the best they can do with tons of smuggled bombs/drones and local collaborators as well as unprepared Iranians.

I have a hard time believing Israel’s opening attack wasn’t the best they can do

"Best" is a meaningless term here, it's not a competition. It's a military campaign, which is not finished yet. And the supply chain to make a working nuclear weapons is long and requires multiple high-tech processes - the ingredients of which are being destroyed now. Full reports on it aren't available yet (Iranians would certainly claim almost nothing is destroyed, and Israelis may also not give you true picture in the middle of military campaign, they have other priorities). But with almost complete aerial domination Israel enjoys currently, I think a lot of things getting knocked out. Some things - like Fordow - are too deep to be easily knocked out, but I'm sure Israel thought about it for many years and they have some ideas.

Yes they obviously thought about it quite hard and the solution is to bribe and blackmail enough American politicians (with child rape) to get the American military to complete the job.

“Best” is a meaningful term because Israelis don’t have the means to actually destroy the facilities themselves. If they would, this would change the strategic picture massively.

"Israel is bribing American politicians with child rape" is a sufficiently inflammatory claim to require considerable evidence, proactively supplied.

blackmail enough American politicians (with child rape)

Are you serious?

“Best” is a meaningful term because Israelis don’t have the means to actually destroy the facilities themselves

IMO it's not inconceivable they can figure out a way. WWII had the Grand Slam and Tallboy bombs built specially on fairly short notice for attacking hardened German targets. Desert Storm was a short war, but special bunker busters were developed and dropped in combat within a month.

Israel has had quite a bit of time to consider the problem, and given that they have total control of the air, dropping something very heavy with a modern guidance kit from a cargo plane doesn't seem that inconceivable.

Possible, but not the only way. As recent events showed, dropping large bombs from high altitude is not the only way to deal with things, and Israelis are pretty good in employing different modes of warfare. We'll soon see if they have any ideas about underground targets like Fordow plant.

Desert Storm was a short war, but special bunker busters were developed and dropped in combat within a month.

I have it on Very Good Authority that the primary reason that this is so is because the DoD cut out all of the typical red tape involved in developing said munitions.

Israel is well on its way to achieve that

Without snark - is it? As in - is it easier for Iran to rebuild, than Israel to replenish it's offensive capabilities? So far in the face of Iran Israel has been faced with the greatest gift of them all - stupid adversary. But you can't expect this gift to keep on giving forever.

My humble armchair prediction is that we will be unpleasantly surprised at how fast Iran will get it's footing back if the regime survives.

As in - is it easier for Iran to rebuild, than Israel to replenish it's offensive capabilities?

No, it's not. Making a bomb is easier than making an uranium enrichment factory. Most expensive stuff on Israel's side is capital investment (like planes) which is not consumable, and consumables are relatively cheap. Certainly not free and at some point you could only make so many bombs, but you can build new bombs faster than you can build high-tech factories.

But you can't expect this gift to keep on giving forever.

If they stop being stupid, by virtue of that they'd also stop trying to invest so much money in destroying a tiny country which would gladly forget they exist if only they'd let them. Iran literally gains absolutely nothing from messing with Israel except stupidity points. It's literally the stupidest fight ever for them - they have no territorial dispute, they can gain no resources, they can not make more money or destroy a competitor - nothing. If they were smart, they'd do what Qatar or Saudis do - say "fuck them nukes", make peace with the Jews, buy American fighter planes and use the oil money to bribe half of the world into submission. They may throw a bone to the islamic terrorists to go fight Jews from time to time, just for the old times sake, but they wouldn't get into an open fight that gains them nothing. Israelis are not too proud, they know how diplomacy works in the Middle East - you can yell "death to the Jews" all day long, but if you don't do much to back it up, it'd be fine. But Iran government are stupid and blinded by their ideology, so they are.

If they stop being stupid, by virtue of that they'd also stop trying to invest so much money in destroying a tiny country which would gladly forget they exist if only they'd let them

Smart and rational are different beasts.

To armchair off your armchair: I think the Israeli campaign is going to have a pruning effect on Iranian infrastructure and personnel. I bet the Iranians are drawing up blueprints for deep bunkers for leadership and whatever else will make their country more resistant to the current/next air offensive. Like any long term conflict, the smart survive and get promoted, exposed SAM's get blown up and new ones are put in hardened installations.

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