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Trump has bombed Iran's nuclear sites, using B2 bombers dropping 30,000-pound massive ordinance penetrators. All aircraft have successfully cleared Iranian airspace, and Trump is claiming that all three nuclear sites were wiped out. No word that I've seen of a counter-attack from Iran, as yet.
AOC has concluded that a president ordering an airstrike without congressional approval is grounds for impeachment. Fetterman thinks it was the right move. Both are, I suppose, on brand.
My feelings are mixed. I absolutely do not want us signing up for another two decades of invading and inviting the middle east, and of all the places I'd pick with a gun to my head, Iran would be dead last. I do not think our military is prepared for a serious conflict at the moment, because I think there's a pretty good likelihood that a lot of our equipment became suddenly obsolete two or three years ago, and also because I'm beginning to strongly suspect that World War 3 has already started and we've all just just been a bit slow catching on. That said, I am really not a fan of Iran, and while I could be persuaded to gamble on Iran actually acquiring nukes, it's still a hell of a gamble, and the Israelis wiping Iran's air defense grid made this about the cheapest alternative imaginable. I have zero confidence that diplomacy was ever going to work; it's pretty clear to me that Iran wanted nukes, and that in the best case this would result in considerable proliferation and upheaval. Now, assuming the strikes worked, that issue appears to be off the table for the short and medium terms. That... seems like a good thing? Maybe?
I'm hoping what appears to me to be fairly intense pressure to avoid an actual invasion keeps American boots of Iranian soil. As with zorching an Iranian general in Iraq during Trump's first term, this seems like a fairly reasonable gamble, but if we get another forever war out of this, that would be unmitigated disaster.
I'm guessing Trump only did this because the MIC assured him we could keep Iran under our figurative boot simply by pushing buttons from afar, doing strikes from the air and continuing to sell weapons to Israel.
That could obviously be false but it's quite pathetic for Iran that Israel and the US can attack them from the air with impunity. Their threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz was dubious already, and after the events of the last week it seems laughable.
There's simply no reason to do a ground invasion.
Will we get regime change this way? Yeah I dunno. Can we keep wrecking their shit and reduce their threat level to near zero? I would bet on that sure.
Think campaign to collapse Syria and not war to oust Saddam Hussein.
It should be noted that Syria had a decade of civil war before the regime finally collapsed (after Israel took out Hezbollah).
Back in the day, the Allies dropped a massive load of bombs on Nazi Germany, which caused people all over Germany to rebel against the regime now that the Luftwaffe did no longer hold them in check. I kid, nothing of that sort happened, because what kept the people in check was ideology and the GeStaPo, neither of which can be effectively neutralized from the air (without killing literally everyone).
I am not convinced that US/Israel can even indefinitely prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb through targeted bombardment only.
Counterpoint: two really huge bombs on Japan made them surrender unconditionally
The best thing about this question is there's no need to speculate, we seem on track to run the experiment and find out. !remindme 48 months
Almost unconditionally; they insisted on keeping Emperor Hirohito, although this was not couched as a condition. Fair enough since it was Hirohito's personal intervention which resulted in the surrender.
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