site banner

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 5, 2022

This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.

Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.

We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:

  • Shaming.

  • Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.

  • Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.

  • Recruiting for a cause.

  • Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.

In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:

  • Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.

  • Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.

  • Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.

  • Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.

On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.

9
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Strategic nuclear balance between US and China has apparently changed, and this has been publicly acknowledged by elected US representatives.

Apart from it making a US led escalation of a Taiwan war somewhat less likely, I'm not sure what this means. A ploy to get more money for defense ?

It's a big deal as scholars on twitter whom I follow were reduced from their usual verbosity to posting just .. "what the hell".

I've been seeing rumors from nuclear experts about a Chinese nuclear build-up, but now US house & senate claim it's real.

Would welcome some discussion of this, as I'm sure this is going to have real world implications.

/images/16703763204140296.webp

The first response:

Saying it many time does not make it true. China’s military growth is described in the annual DOD reports to Congress. Most analysts regard it as pretty accurate and comprehensive. So references to “the rest of the iceberg” are mere hyperbole and political posture.

I've said it before, I'll say it again: Americans can't get their junk up without posturing as underdogs. There's the Sputnik moment, there's the missile gap, there's the supercomputer gap and AI papers gap and who knows what else... I guess this has been going on for so long, and so profitably, we're back to the missile gap. There are real gaps – in unlivable apartment buildings, raw concrete production, stuff like that – but they aren't discussed as often.

I suspect Americans have learned this despicable practice from their Israeli friends who are somewhat easier to emphasize with, but it doesn't reflect well on an uncontested hyperpower.

I'll believe the missile gap when I see it.

In any case, the age of the nuke is over, the fear is no longer there, and the West is getting ready for a conventional showdown, tightening the circle, increasing military budgets and ramping up production. This war is but a warmup.

The fear of the nuke isn't entirely gone, I'd say, but it probably isn't like what it was during the Cold War.

People are really nuts if the don't fear the nuke.

I mean, EMP is pretty real. One rogue sub commander who could reprogram the missiles to burst high up could literally roll back industry to cca late 19th century overnight.