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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   6989 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 21, 2025

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I can't think of a worse set of arguments made by proponents of the US letting Ukraine suffer a defeat.

  • Putin defeating Ukraine and then being emboldened to threaten small NATO neighbors increases risk of WWIII way more than supporting Ukraine does.
  • The US/West failing to sufficiently back Ukraine emboldens China and other would-be aggressors when they do their risk calculations.

The US/West failing to sufficiently back Ukraine emboldens China and other would-be aggressors when they do their risk calculations.

The US ditching Ukraine to prioritize Taiwan I think would actually spook China. The US doubling down on its commitments to Ukraine means fewer weapons in the Pacific, unless the US also slashes its social services or something else to double down on walking and chewing gum. China would prefer the US bogged down in Ukraine, and the US openly abandoning them to their fate to focus on the Pacific would demonstrate that the US "ambiguous" policy towards Taiwan is actually one of total strategic commitment to Chinese containment.

The US ditching Ukraine to prioritize Taiwan I think would actually spook China.

This is not an actual available option. Please try again. Trump won't even ban TikTok ffs.

The US doubling down on its commitments to Ukraine means fewer weapons in the Pacific

Prime the Pump. If we have munitions capacity issues what better way to fix them.

China would prefer the US bogged down in Ukraine

What on earth does "bogged down" mean here? I'm not arguing we conduct military operations.

This is not an actual available option.

Why not?

If we have munitions capacity issues what better way to fix them.

Sure, if Ukraine/Europe can release funding to fund US munitions (which I do gather is happening, and that seems fine). But if the US has budget X and they can split it between the Pacific and Europe, or just spend it on the Pacific, the latter option is scarier for China.

What on earth does "bogged down" mean here? I'm not arguing we conduct military operations.

That ship has already sailed. The US has been conducting "non-kinetic" military operations in support of Ukraine's war effort for the duration of the war.

It's not about budgets.

US doesn't have the industrial capacity to counter China. The US war plan, right now, relies on a hail mary of "maybe if we spam 1000 improved Tomahawk missiles at (mobile) Chinese batteries from submarines off the coast we'll be able to kill enough of these to be able to operate carriers near Taiwan.

Mind you US Tomahawk inventory is about 1k. (Or 2k) I dunno, but in any case only a fraction can even hit mobile targets even theoretically and assuming, during a war that US would be able to observe China unmolested by laser satellite dazzlers is brave in itself.

I don't really think this is true. A lot of it depends on the specific goal the US is trying to achieve. But just generally, the US doesn't need carriers to "win" a Taiwan Strait engagement.

Frankly I'm not sure the US would bother to use a lot of Tomahawks on missile launchers, particularly since the newer ones have an antiship mode.

But just generally, the US doesn't need carriers to "win" a Taiwan Strait engagement.

Achieving merely what Ukraine has in the Black Sea would be a victory for Taiwan: area denial to naval and air assets would be a victory, with the potential of blocking significant chunks of commercial traffic to all of China's ports.

Right.

IMHO, the US Navy could conduct a devastating far blockade of China relatively easily. (That's something that is missed in discussions of superior Chinese shipbuilding: "The PLAN said that the US Navy was seizing all of their cargo vessels and I asked him what he was doing about it and he said he just kept building more ships and I told him it kinda sounded like he was feeding the US free cargo ships and Xi Jinping started crying.")

The main question is if that's actually something that is fast enough to help Taiwan. If they prioritize air and sea denial strategies, their survival becomes more likely.

I am on record for doubting the US navy could/would attack and seize the shipping vessels of much of the world that would still prefer to trade with China, but I will admit to chuckling at your description.

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