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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 26, 2022

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If money is involved, a surefire rule is if something seems to good to be true, it probably is. Detecting fed posting or astroturfing is probably harder.

I’m sure some people have rolled their eyes at stories I’ll tell, but if I claimed I was benching 400 and fucking models after I finish my PhD work at Harvard one could just block me out because it would be obvious I was lying.

If someone makes even an very improbable claim, if there is no way that they are directly profiting/benefiting from it, then it's more likely to be true than if there is some incentive to lie. I think more often than not people are telling the truth but maybe omit or embellish some details. Maybe that 400 pound bench press is real but the part about steroids is omitted .

I like to default on the side of believing people. I think it a more helpful mindset to have. I remember many years ago on a forum people were discussing some way to make money, and most people were dismissive that it was fake. I set out to replicate it, and indeed it did work.

if there is no way that they are directly profiting/benefiting from it, then it's more likely to be true than if there is some incentive to lie.

The incentive to lie is often just to gain credibility. /r/climbharder has more users than there are people in the united states who climb as hard as the typical user on there claims to climb. But I can see the temptation: you know the advice you want to give is good, but you also no one will take you seriously if you say you only climb v5, so you call yourself a v8 climber just to get your point across.

Profit/Benefit probably isn't a good metric, because more people will be willing to lie for the minor benefit of credibility on reddit than will be willing to lie for money. The bigger benefit carries a bigger perceived ethical cost to lying; lying to steal money is much worse than lying to get laid or lying to win an argument with a stranger.

But there are a lot of ways to soften a 400lb bench press (or any other achievement, I'm probably guilty of a good number of them myself!)

-- I can bench 400 (but I'm otherwise a fat unathletic slob living in my parents basement, bench is just my one achievement so it is what I bring up)

-- I can bench 400 (once, with a little help from my spotter, maybe, and I've never done it again, but dammit it happened!)

-- I can bench 400 (with a great deal of chemical aid)

I like to default on the side of believing people.

A default is something you use when you have no information. Whether someone's claim is improbable is not only information, but really important information.

I remember many years ago on a forum people were discussing some way to make money, and most people were dismissive that it was fake. I set out to replicate it, and indeed it did work.

The term "fake" is vague here. Were there claims that the person didn't do what he said at all? That he did but left out information? That he did but achieved his result only by luck?

Also, what was it? Because if you don't tell us what it is, it's hard to figure out whether you were just lucky, whether you left something out, etc.

Something to do with social media. People didn't think he was making as much as he claimed. It was not luck related, but something I felt I could reproduce. Anyone can pretend or claim to be making money. I decided to see if it was possible using the information provided.

Was this on the old subreddit? I can remember a few. Were people saying that markets couldn't possibly be so inefficient?