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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   31784 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 2, 2023

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I believe the mechanism underlying that generalization was that people trend leftward who haven’t had to work for a living yet (in school on loans) or whose only jobs have been entry-level jobs where they’re treated as fungible, replaceable components. When someone has to actually interact with the economy with agency, or find people relying on them to be responsible, they end up conservative because they have things at stake and have to game out their future choices in the world they find themselves in.

This theory suggests that something is massively altering the employment landscape, keeping Millennials in entry-level or fungible job positions longer than previous generations, or otherwise keeping them from being economically agentic.

I believe the silent killer of conservatism is young people not moving out of their parents’ homes. Taking out a mortgage on a home was considered a turning point in the American Dream, and even moving in with roommates to share costs was a Big Deal.

This theory suggests that something is massively altering the employment landscape

Boomers refusing to retire and blocking the chain of career advancement? "Boomers screw everyone, yet again" is a popular sentiment. Perhaps for a real reason.

People always propose explanations like this without considering if they have any predictive power. So going by this, I should be able to look up the countries with the lowest rates of home ownership and highest youth unrmployment and find the wokest population, right? Do you think that will be true?

Remember, we’re talking about American conservatism: market economics, high freedoms, granular locality of political decisionmaking. Try looking up the counties in America with the lowest rates of home ownership and highest youth unemployment.

I think that’s Spain, which is hurtling leftwards in a vaguely woke way, although their narrative is different for obvious historical reasons.

The bigger test is France- declining real incomes, an extremely Trumpy right that’s doing better with the young than the old, and large ethnic tensions.

Again, France, where youth unemployment is high and FN does better among young voters than the establishment or left parties?

I believe the silent killer of conservatism is young people not moving out of their parents’ homes.

I dunno, what about the countries (ie. Southern Europe) where staying at your parents' place comparatively late compared to Northern Europe / Anglo countries has been the norm for a long time?

I believe the silent killer of conservatism is young people not moving out of their parents’ homes.

Is that actually happening to the extent that it makes much difference?

I know Finland is a bit of an exception, with almost everyone moving out on their own around the age of 20, but AFAIK there hasn't been any meaningful change in that in recent years.

In Poland... some excerpts from a random article

According to Eurostat data, 47.5 percent of Poles aged 25-34 live in family homes. "That's almost 2.6 million people, 172,000 more than in 2019." - HRE Investments expert Bartosz Turek pointed out.

The issue does not primarily affect students. (...) in the last year the percentage of adult Poles who lived with their parents rose most sharply in the 30 to 35 age bracket. "The data confirms the impact of home loans becoming much more difficult to obtain in 2020"

The situation worsened in 2021. "We saw a dynamic recovery of the economy and the loosening of valves on housing loans. As a result, banks received at least tens of thousands of loan applications, which would normally have been realized in the first year of the epidemic." However, the massive increase in demand contributed to increases in housing prices, making real estate unaffordable for many young people.

(...) in the last year the percentage of adult Poles who lived with their parents rose most sharply in the 30 to 35 age bracket. "The data confirms the impact of home loans becoming much more difficult to obtain in 2020"

The situation worsened in 2021. "We saw a dynamic recovery of the economy and the loosening of valves on housing loans. As a result, banks received at least tens of thousands of loan applications, which would normally have been realized in the first year of the epidemic." However, the massive increase in demand contributed to increases in housing prices, making real estate unaffordable for many young people.

However, he pointed out, the massive increase in demand contributed to increases in housing prices, making real estate unaffordable for many young people.

According to Turk, the situation could be improved by the government's credit guarantee program for homebuyers - the so-called no-down-payment loan program, which is due to take effect in six months. "The reason is simple - no-down-payment loans can shorten the path to one's own apartment by as much as several years. After all, that's how much time the young need to collect the necessary contribution to the loan."

Big lol at some real estate investment firm's representative praising government for ~subsidizing housing*. That will surely not increase demand (and prices) further.

* it's not just no-downpayment. They also make the loans have 2% interest for the first 10 years (by paying the difference).

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