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Notes -
Welcome to day three in the United States House of Representatives quest to choose a speaker. Previous thread here. Yesterday ended a little abruptly, with the House reconvening at 8 pm only to immediately adjourn until noon today. Word on the street is the Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was worried someone was going to nominate Steve Scalise (R-LA) for the Speakership and that Scalise would be a compromise candidate who could defeat McCarthy. Allegedly a deal was reached overnight that will bring some 10 or so dissenters to McCarthy's side but, unfortunately for him, that will still not be enough for him to win. In order to get an outright majority (assuming all members vote) McCarthy needs to get 17 of the 21 Republicans not currently voting for him.
Interestingly it seems some of these Republicans are not even looking for rule changes, they are just Never-McCarthy. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), for example, told the news yesterday that he was prepared to vote "every hour, every day, every week, but never for [McCarthy]". If four other Republicans feel similarly I believe that will be enough to deny McCarthy the Speakership in perpetuity. Having other McCarthy supporters vote "Present" to decrease the total needed doesn't work because McCarthy loses votes faster than the threshold decreases. The "Present" voters would need to either be among the five opposed to McCarthy or among Democrats, both of which seem unlikely to me.
ETA:
At the end of the seventh ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 201
Donalds - 19
Other - 1
Present - 1
Matt Gaetz was the Other vote and cast his vote for Donald John Trump. It seems the alleged compromise failed to actually move any of the dissenters against McCarthy, including Victoria Spartz (R-IN) who has voted Present in the last few ballots. Nor has anyone nominated Scalise yet. We're now looking at 4 ballots across two days with basically identical results. Well and truly in a stalemate.
ETA 2:
At the end of the eighth ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 201
Donalds - 17
Other - 3
Present - 1
Few more Other votes this time. Two for Kevin Hern (R-OK) and one for Trump again. Seems holdouts may not be sold on Donalds but aren't coming around to McCarthy. Wish we could skip the nominating speeches (who are not convincing anyone) and move to a speedier method of voting than this call and response. Heard rumors after the first vote that McCarthy wanted to adjourn but the Dems + holdouts probably wouldn't let them (need a majority to adjourn).
ETA 3:
According to a CNN reporter quoting Rep-Elect Michael Lawler (R-NY) the 18 Republican Members of the House that were elected in districts Biden won in 2020 are not moving from Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. So if these 18 won't vote for anyone other than McCarthy and at least 5 other members will never vote for McCarthy then it's impossible for the Republicans to get anyone over the majority line.
ETA 4:
At the end of the ninth ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 200
Donalds - 17
Hern - 3
Other - 0
Present - 1
Ken Buck (R-CO) did not vote. We've now passed the number of ballots the last time there were multiple ballots in a Speaker election. This is officially the longest Speaker selection by ballot count since 1859. That election took 44 ballots. Probably see adjournment after this though I'm unsure until when. Pretty convinced at this point there is nothing McCarthy can offer that's going to get the holdouts to vote for him and I'm unclear if there's a non-McCarthy candidate that could get a sufficient number of votes unless McCarthy himself drops out. Probably House adjourns after this for dinner although until when I could not say.
ETA 5:
At the end of the tenth ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 200
Donalds - 13
Hern - 7
Other - 0
Present - 1
Ken Buck (R-CO) did not vote. Kevin McCarthy fails to secure the Speakership for the 10th time. Looks like Republican dissenters might be migrating from Donaldson to Hern. No movement between any of the three coalitions (Dems/McCarthy/Other). Might be more votes depending on where the votes stand for adjournment.
ETA 6:
At the end of the eleventh ballot the results stand at:
Jeffries - 212
McCarthy - 200
Hern - 7
Trump - 1
Other - 12
Present - 1
I think just about all the Other votes were for Donalds, not sure why no one re-nominated him. Something darkly amusing about back room deals going while these votes are counted because members need to be on the floor to vote and don't have the votes to adjourn, so they have to retire to their private meeting rooms in the brief period when they can.
ETA 7:
On a 219-213 vote, with one Republican joining the Democrats, the House is adjourned until noon tomorrow.
I love this so much it’s unreal.
One of the more mask off moments is seeing all the dems saying on twitter and various cable news interviews that the republicans are obstructing and that this is, of course, a danger to our democracy.
They leave out that those dems could simply vote for McCarthy and Restore Democracy. It’s like they really do believe that they have a right to everyone’s vote, no matter the voters actual preference, and that only their preferences are right and just and Democratic.
The holdouts are objectively obstructing. Mostly their own “teammates,” so it’s a bit silly for Democrats to act wounded, but still. Matt Gaetz et al. are representing their constituents at the expense of the GOP—per their mandate.
Why should it be Democrats’ responsibility to pick up after the toddlers?
Not trying to single you out here, but I hate the word "obstructing" in politics. Its use is a motte-and-bailey. The motte is "blocking a thing from happening." As you say, the holdouts are "objectively" blocking the election of a speaker. But the bailey (which I'm not accusing you of using here) is "blocking my team from doing what we want without compromise," which was how the term was used through most of the Obama administration.
I also really loathe the use of child-related words to describe politicians' actions. "Petulant," "childish," "toddlers," "tantrum," and of course the bizarre flash in the pan from a few years ago that was "pissbaby." Nobody in any of the three branches of government is a "toddler" (though I'll make allowances for Trump). This sort of language smuggles in the idea that the other team are the "adults" who are mature, responsible, serious, reliable, and more deserving of power. Assuming it's not being used cynically, it represents a failure to fully grok one's outgroup's motivations.
For example, Gaetz casting a vote for Trump isn't being a "toddler" or "having a tantrum," it's a middle finger to the establishment GOP. You might think it's an ineffectual or tasteless gesture, and it may well be, but there's a serious intent behind it. It's not the act of an irrational "toddler."
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