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I was browsing through the news today and I found an interesting article about the current state of AI for corporate productivity.
MIT report: 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing
There seems to have been a feeling over the last few years that generative AI was going to gut white collar jobs the same way that offshoring gutted blue collar jobs in the 1980s and 90s, and that it was going to happen any day now.
If this study is trustworthy, the promise of AI appears to be less concrete and less imminent than many would hope or fear.
I've been thinking about why that might be, and I've reached three non-exclusive but somewhat unrelated thoughts.
The first is that Gartner hype cycle is real. With almost every new technology, investors tend to think that every sigmoid curve is an exponential curve that will asymptotically approach infinity. Few actually are. Are we reaching the point where the practical gains available in each iteration our current models are beginning to bottom out? I'm not deeply plugged in to the industry, nor the research, nor the subculture, but it seems like the substantive value increase per watt is rapidly diminishing. If that's true, and there aren't any efficiency improvements hiding around the next corner, it seems like we may be entering the through of disillusionment soon.
The other thought that occurs to me is that people seem to be absolutely astounded by the capabilities of LLMs and similar technology.
Caveat: My own experience with LLMs is that it's like talking to a personable schizophrenic from a parallel earth, so take my ramblings with a grain of salt.
It almost seems like LLMs exist in an area similar to very early claims of humanoid automata, like the mechanical Turk. It can do things that seem human, and as a result, we naturally and unconsciously ascribe other human capabilities to them while downplaying their limits. Eventually, the discrepancy grows to great - usually when somebody notices the cost.
On the third hand, maybe it is a good technology and 95% of companies just don't know how to use it?
Does anyone have any evidence that might lend weight to any of these thoughts, or discredit them?
What’s the base rate?
If I saw “rapid revenue acceleration” on a mass email from my upper management, I’d expect roughly zero change in my day to day experience. 95% “little to no impact” is right there in Lizardman territory.
Press releases have the same incentives whether or not a technology (or policy, or reorg, or consent decree, or…) is actually going to benefit me. Companies compete on hype, and so long as AI is a Schelling point, we are basically obligated to mention it. That’s not evidence that the hype is real, or even that management believes it’s real. Just that it’s an accepted signal of agility and awareness.
The article points out a number of stumbling blocks. Centralizing adoption. Funding marketing instead of back-office optimizations. Rolling your own AI. Companies which avoided these were a lot more likely to see actual revenue improvements.
I can say that my company probably stalled out on the second one. I’m in a building full of programmers, but the even the most AI-motivated are doing more with Copilot at home than with the company’s GPT wrapper. There’s no pipeline for integrated programming tools. Given industry-specific concerns about data, there might never be!
But that means we haven’t reached the top of an adoption curve. If the state of the art never advanced, we could still get value just from catching up. That leaves me reluctant to wave away the underlying technology.
I'm also in software, and we've seen value in the following areas:
They seem to all be absolutely terrible for large legacy codebases. I've lost count of the number of times it spit out code in the wrong language entirely.
At this point, I don't think AI is a dead end, but I'm starting to think LLMs might be a blind alley for this particular application.
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