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NYT Continues Medical Pricing Beat
They're starting to get closer.
It is well-known that the NYT will plan out long-term foci for sustained coverage, taking their own perspective, keeping it in their pages in a variety of ways. I've covered a few in recent months; this one is in the "Your Money" section.
The piece focuses on the author's experience with his wife's mastectomy for breast cancer plus reconstructive surgery and the role that prior authorization played in it. What's that?
Why? The only reason they describe comes from their characterization of the insurance industry's response:
I'd like to steelman the idea of prior authorization by rolling it into my own perspective that I've been trying to sustain over time.
The fundamental principle is that prices matter to patients. This statement simultaneously seems trivial and is also quite profound in context of the medical industry. There are doctors even here on The Motte who have sworn up and down that prices don't matter, but frankly, they're just wrong about this. This NYT piece reinforces this basic principle, though it does not state it quite so forthrightly.
That is, the story of the article is that, two days before the planned surgery, the author and his wife
This was disconcerting to them, which is somewhat strange if one thinks that prices don't matter. It seemed to matter to them. He writes:
Contrary to what you might have heard doctors say, that prices don't matter because patients can't possibly make choices with price information, they actually can. Here are actual people, considering making the choice to skip a possibly life-saving surgery, because they have uncertainty concerning the price. I've pointed before to another, doctor-written op-ed in NYT that acknowledges this reality:
It also tells the story of an emergency room patient, in quite bad condition, that the author really felt should be admitted as an inpatient. The patient was concerned about the possible cost. No one could tell him anything. He chose to go home that evening.
Prices matter. Patients will make choices based on prices. Patients will make choices based on uncertainty about prices. This week's NYT piece drives this home with yet another example, this time concerning a surgical procedure.
They ultimately decided to go through with it, and it turns out that the author managed to talk to a billing specialist from the surgery provider while his wife was under the knife. What he learned:
Let's ignore the whackiness (and the veracity) of the claim that the provider would eat any uncovered charges for now. The article makes a fair amount of hash over the issue that they hadn't opted-in for electronic communications from their insurance company, so they only received a delayed snail mail, but the provider was notified earlier and didn't tell them either! Why not?
They are just sooo addicted to price opacity; it's ridiculous. The author is not buying it:
Prices matter. Prices matter. Prices matter. Get it through your thick skulls, providers and insurers. Just tell your patients. Tell them. They need to know. They're currently making decisions under uncertainty, and you can just tell them. The author closes with basically this exact plea:
Just tell the patient what's going on. Just tell them the price. Do it before services are rendered.
Ok, with the basics out of the way, I should probably get around to that steelman of prior authorization that I promised. The fact of the matter is that there are going to be some drugs/procedures that insurance won't cover, at least under some circumstances. There's probably not a reasonable way out of this with a rule like, "Insurance must just cover literally anything all the time, no matter what." Obviously, there's going to be a spectrum, with some routine things being covered ~100% of the time, with others having significantly more variance. The useful idea behind prior authorization is that the provider and the insurance company should get together... get their shit together... and figure out what the price is going to be for the patient. And, frankly, that makes sense, especially for items that often have significant variance. It's hard to make hard and fast rules here, but my sense that many insurance companies have a list of items where there is significant variance and so they require prior authorization.
It is good for them to get their shit together. It would be even better for them to get their shit together more routinely and then to tell the patient what things are going to cost. It is a pox on both their houses that they haven't gotten their shit together. The old NYT op-ed was written by a doctor, so it's no surprise that they wanted to put all the blame on the insurance companies. This week's was written by just a guy, one of the journalists on staff, talking about his own experience, and he more rightfully pointed out that both providers and insurers are failing.
NYT is getting closer, but they're not quite there yet. They've given multiple examples of why giving patients prices matters, but they haven't quite figured out that they just need to beat that drum directly.
I remember having to get an X-ray for an injury a few years ago and not a single person from the hospital or insurance company could give me a straight answer on how much it would cost me out of pocket. This was a procedure with extremely predictable costs and no potential for complications and still, after hours of navigating the insurance company's websites and phone trees, I had to give up. I'm sympathetic to the concept of price transparency generally but when it comes to healthcare I do have some concerns.
I've always wanted to ask those most ardently supportive of socialized healthcare: we have finite resources, where will you draw the line for what medical services we do and do not provide? Does grandma get a $300,000 chemotherapy course for a 60% chance at 2 months of vomiting and brain-fog? In a single payer system, the government has to make those decisions.
The cost-benefit landscape is high-dimensional, fuzzy, and rapidly branching with time-delayed consequences. "Informed" consent is a complete misnomer and I have to wonder if given complete price transparency whether healthcare wouldn't completely devolve into a Market for Lemons. For those who want complete price transparency: do you think the populace is equipped to make those decisions for themselves? We have enough snake oil products as is. How long before a price transparent but information asymmetric free market devolves into the same? The current system seems to eliminate the principal-agent problem, giving doctors less incentive to stray from optimizing for standard of care (hopefully one of our resident doctors can comment on whether this is at all an accurate assessment or a complete misinterpretation). The downside is this price-opaque mess. I'm not sure if the alternative is better or worse for society at large. Do you really want hospitals cutting corners and trying to undercut competitors on prices? A/B testing in medicine takes years of expensive and coordinated clinical trials. It's not something as quickly self-correcting as a restaurant going back to more costly ingredients because their customers notice the decline in quality and the consequences aren't as trivial as a bad meal.
Psychiatry is a great example of this. Do you prescribe the homeless schizophrenic the best drug or the cheapest one or the one that is easiest to take. These are very often all different medications and have different results.
In a different patient population you might ask the patient to decide what makes sense for them, but the schizophrenic has cognitive deficits from the disease (not counting any other factors like malnutrition and drug use). They can't adequately consent to to complicated cost benefit analysis.
Even highly educated, intelligent, frickin healthcare workers botch this when they are on the receiving end.
So then we have to wonder if the plan is to dictate patients get the cheapest medication not the most effective one....or vice versa.
As you mention it's complicated and ethically difficult.
This is a powerful objection because it feels like an unanswerable dilemma. It conjures the image of a cold, centralized bureaucracy, a "death panel," weighing a beloved grandmother's life against a line item in a budget. The implication is that any system forced to make such a choice is morally monstrous, and that your current system, for all its faults, avoids this grim calculus.
But this assumes the alternative to an explicit line is no line at all. In reality, the American system draws lines constantly. The line is your FICO score. It is the fine print of your employer’s chosen insurance plan. It is the difference between an in-network and out-of-network hospital. You don't get to avoid the decision about grandma’s chemo, you simply outsource it to an opaque web/distributed network of insurance adjusters, hospital billing departments, and personal bankruptcy lawyers. I presume that, at some point, someone with an MD will have opinions on the matter.
The interesting thing is that the dreaded explicit system is not a hypothetical construct from a dystopian novel. It is a real, functioning, and remarkably mundane bureaucracy in places like the United Kingdom. The NHS confronts the line-drawing problem head on, not with a panel of grim-faced commissars, but with a legion of actuaries and medical ethicists, and yes, actual medical doctors at an institution called NICE, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.
NICE's primary tool is something called the Quality-Adjusted Life Year, or QALY. It is a straightforward, if necessarily imperfect, metric. One year of perfect health is one QALY. A year lived with a condition that reduces your quality of life by half is half a QALY. NICE then calculates the cost of a given treatment per QALY gained. As a general rule, a treatment that costs between twenty and thirty thousand pounds per QALY is considered cost-effective.
I'll run the numbers on grandma, even if I already know the answer. A $300,000 treatment (roughly £240,000) for a 60% chance at two months (0.16 years) of very low-quality life (let's generously say 0.2 QALYs) results in a cost per QALY that is astronomically high. The answer from the system is a clear, predictable no. Conversely, a treatment with the same price tag for a teenager that offers a high chance of fifty more years of healthy life would be approved without a second thought. The system is explicitly utilitarian. It prioritizes maximizing the total amount of healthy life across the population. It can and will spend millions on a child, but it will counsel a family against a futile and painful intervention for a demented octogenarian. This isn't some big secret either. I have had such discussions with dozens of families, and not a single one has had a problem with it, or withdrawn their relative to go elsewhere, as they are at full liberty to do.
For those who find this calculus unsettling (I do not know why the standard approach to handling scarce resources unsettles anyone) the system provides an escape hatch. The existence of the NHS does not preclude private medicine. The wealthy, or anyone with good private insurance, can opt out of the public queue and pay for the treatment the state has denied. You can, in effect, disagree with the state’s valuation of a life year and substitute your own. The state provides a robust, free baseline for ninety-nine percent of situations, while allowing a private market for those who want more. A similar model exists in India, a country with far fewer resources than the United States (citation available on request) which manages to provide basic care for free while supporting a thriving private sector.
The American conversation on this topic often seems stuck in a state of arrested development, terrified by the philosophical specter of a problem that other Anglosphere nations have long since downgraded to a matter of accounting. The "death panel" is not a uniquely socialist horror. It is an inescapable feature of any system that deals with scarce resources, which is to say, any system in the real world. Not even the most charitably inclined soul will spend the entirety of their nation's GDP on the cancer treatment of even the most photogenic child. Their parents might empty their bank account and go into debt to do so, but that's simultaneously their right while also not entitling them to demand infinite resources from the rest of us. The Pope might claim that all lives are priceless, but you don't see him pawning off the Vatican's paintings or his Pope Mobile to do so.
I mean, it’s a news story every few years that the pope(or secular Italian government) offers to pay for medical treatment for some very sick baby thé NHS is pulling the plug on and the organs of the British state won’t let the parents take him to it.
I keep saying I've reached the point in my Motte career where I've discussed every topic under the sun. That's true for this one.
In this specific case, assuming it's the incident from a year or two back, the child was almost guaranteed to die regardless of where they were taken. The main objection of the doctors and the government against them being taken was both that transfer would be highly expensive, and that it wouldn't make a single jot of difference other than prolonging the anguish. If you know any paediatricians, you'll know that they're the kind of people who love kids and will move heaven and earth to help them. If they're saying it's a write off, I am highly inclined to believe them.
From my own, liberatarianish position, I would have preferred the family got to try nonetheless. But there is no clear cut answer, and it was a decision made in good faith.
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I think you've put it perfectly here. I wasn't intending to use it as a counterpoint, instead I was just interested in how they might respond. I think a QALY-based calculation is a transparent and reasonable approach, at the very least moreso than the convoluted mess we have now, but I find a lot of people will, as you say, find the calculus unsettling.
I find this particularly interesting. I suppose there are significant UK/US cultural differences in this regard, because I cannot imagine such a thing going well over here (My doctor friends told me once about Daughter from California Syndrome. I don't suppose you have an equivalent over there?).
Sadly, we do. It is a human universal, including back in India. On the contrary, the fact that there's no financial incentivefor us to "do everything" means that it's easier to say no, though I have sufficient respect for my American brethren to assume they usually manage something in the end.
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You know, the American edge of this kinda stuff runs into a few issues. One is our legitimate exceptionalism, we are the superpower, we don't usually need to make compromises. That's not a completely terrible approach and for long enough that most of the people alive in the country have only experienced that....it worked.
It limits our facility with actually going through this process however.
Part of it is that people know that something can be shaved off without impairing patient care. This is probably right but nobody knows (or agrees) what it is.
Then you have American specific attributes - we are pussies when it comes to pain for instance, we are more willing to seek and use care, we are too independent, and so on.
Low societal temperament to say "yeah let some mee-maws go down if it saves a few hundred million dollars."
But yes you are right that this conversation is happening just less transparently, and at the same time if you came over here I think you'd be shocked at how much we through at things.
Is it good that we'll code a clearly dead kid for 90 minutes? Is it good that we will give homeless crack cocaine Fred the standard of care 12 times a month when he presents with psychiatric issues caused by his recreational polypharmacy?
I don't know.
I am however at times horrified and at times proud.
Better men than me have tried to grapple with cost-disease in the American healthcare system. From my perspective, it is a 'good' problem to have, if only because it proves you guys have so much fucking money that you can piss away such large sums of it without causing the system to go up in flames. Everyone gripes and kvetches, nobody seems happy, but happiness is a tall ask when lives and money are on the line.
For all the flaws of the system, it is clearly adequate, in the sense that the majority of the country is unwilling to set the rest of it on fire in a bid to fix it. I don't mean to damn with faint praise, it's not like medical systems elsewhere don't have their flaws. The "good/quick/cheap, pick two" problem has never been solved anywhere that I know of. America is like a whale, so huge that even the most aggressive cancer doesn't amount to more than a pimple.
Usually (and especially here) my angst is generated by people's frustration with physician salaries, as it's an easy target for frustration but is A (but not the) load bearing feature of the U.S. health system and angry people don't care.
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