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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   42696 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 8, 2025

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People are not reproducing because the government promises them the labor of other people’s children in retirement.

I don't think this is true, I think that people are not reproducing because it's work and people don't like that. Retirement savings is a booming business but mostly among people who have kids; places with lower pension amounts are not known for their higher fertility.

That is unlikely. Social security started in 1935.

FWIW, several of my friends who don't plan on having kids explicitly state that part of the reason is that they will have more money for retirement. From a personal view this is sensible, from a societies' view it's pure insanity, and a point in Soterologian's favor, even if it's far from the only reason people have no kids.

It takes time for deep incentive changes of this sort to percolate. It wasn’t intended as a subsidy for childlessness, nor was it perceived as such.

But it nonetheless is.

Look at that graph. TFR drops from 1800 until 1940 (with the 1935 to 1940 drop being smaller by far than the 1930 to 1935 drop), then goes SHARPLY back up until 1960, falls again as sharply until 1980, then goes slightly back up and down. There is absolutely no evidence for your position; you've got less than nothing.

This is such asinine analysis. Obviously there are many factors to a complicated system. Turning the rudder normally changes your ship’s direction one way, but if there’s a strong enough current, or you have the sails up pointed a different way, obviously the boat could go any direction due to the overall balance of forces.

Your analysis is basically saying “See, Newton’s laws of motion are bunk because when we trace the current’s effect on the ship it doesn’t always go that way!”

Honestly, if you don’t see it, that’s fine, good for you. Trust whatever graphs make you happy. I cannot and will not try to convince you further, congrats, you win.

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